Who will be the last laugh on the 2026 market stage?

Gold's performance this year has indeed been crazy. COMEX prices broke through $4,500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 70%, marking the strongest annual performance in 45 years. And what about Bitcoin, often touted as "digital gold"? It’s still struggling near $88,000, down nearly 30% from its October all-time high.

Interestingly, even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented: The true competitor of Bitcoin is gold; fundamentally, both are safe-haven assets—one physical, one virtual. So the question is—will gold continue to dominate in 2026, or can Bitcoin make a comeback?

**Gold’s 2025 Three Pillars**

Gold’s rise to this level isn’t without reason.

The key factor is central banks’ aggressive buying. Gold now accounts for 26% of global foreign exchange reserves, while US dollar reserves have fallen to their lowest since 1995. The data is straightforward: in 2024, global central banks net purchased 1,045 tons of gold, while the total global production was only 4,974 tons. It’s expected that 2025 will mark the fourth consecutive year of over 1,000 tons of gold purchases.

From another perspective, the US dollar’s credibility is also weakening. The US government’s debt-to-GDP ratio has far exceeded safe levels, and this pressure will eventually transmit to the markets. Against this backdrop, investors either bet on the dollar’s depreciation or seek a more solid asset for hedging—gold becomes the most direct choice.

**Why is Bitcoin so sluggish?**

Compared to gold’s glory, Bitcoin is indeed a bit cold. Changes in liquidity conditions and market caution toward risk assets are suppressing this once-star asset. But don’t forget, Bitcoin also has safe-haven properties; it’s just a matter of timing.

Will there be a reversal in 2026? It all depends on how the macro environment unfolds.