Gold in the next 5 years (2568-2574): The end of an abnormal price movement or just the beginning?

A Major Turning Point: Gold Prices Transform and Shift

Not long ago, gold prices acknowledged an unprecedented situation. When the value of this precious metal broke through the psychological threshold of $4,000 per ounce, it signaled more than just a temporary market tremor; it indicated a fundamental structural change in global investment behavior.

Since early 2025, gold prices have increased by over 66%. Looking back, the climb from $3,000 to $4,000 took only 7 months, compared to the previous period of 14 months to rise from $2,000 to $3,000.

Global Policy Outlook: Why Continuous Price Adjustments Occur

The phenomenon observed in the gold market over recent years is not due to speculation or divine signals but results from multiple structural momentum factors driving prices upward.

Trade Conflict Divergence: Tensions between the US and China have entered what can be called a “large-scale trade war.” Recent signals indicate that the US President has announced plans to raise import tariffs by up to 100% on goods from major Asian traders. This economic uncertainty prompts investors worldwide to seek refuge in the safest assets.

Quantitative Easing Policies: The US Federal Reserve approved a 0.25% rate cut in September, with further reductions expected later. The decline in real yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold more attractive to investors.

Accumulation of Gold by Global Central Banks: Central banks, especially those in emerging markets, have increased their holdings by at least 1,200 tons annually for three consecutive years. This movement reflects a process of de-dollarization, accelerating after Russia’s asset freeze events.

Emerging Power Bloc Financial Strategies: There is buzz about major countries issuing digital currencies backed by gold, challenging the dominance of traditional strong currencies.

Signals from Major Financial Institutions: Gold Will Continue to Rise

Reputable financial organizations have signaled that the current movement in gold prices is not the end but a midpoint.

Wall Street’s Sachs Bank: Raised its target price to $4,900 per ounce, expected by the end of 2026. This estimate depends on demand factors often driven by central agencies and capital inflows into valuation funds.

Swiss Banking Giants: Experts in wealth management have noted that gold has been uniquely accumulated by global central banks in unprecedented systems. They also forecast that the metal’s value could reach $3,500 per ounce before the end of 2025.

Price Risks: Beware of Downward Scenarios

While the overall outlook remains positive, certain situations could cause prices to decline.

Successful Trade Negotiations: If the US and major Asian traders reach favorable agreements, economic tensions that have driven investors to seek safe havens may ease.

Profit-Taking Pressure: After rapid price increases over eight weeks, some investors might start realizing profits, which could exert downward pressure, especially if relative valuation indicators suggest overbought conditions.

US Dollar Strength: If US economic activity exceeds expectations and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, the dollar could strengthen, impacting gold prices due to exchange rate fluctuations.

Practical Strategies for Current Traders

Focusing on current management, as gold surpasses $4,000, interested investors can consider the following approaches:

Waiting for Short-Term Fluctuations: Given the rapid rise, a temporary correction may occur to establish new support levels. Investors with a long-term view might seize the opportunity during such dips.

Confirmation with Volume Indicators: Before entering, observe whether trading volume increases with price. High volume indicates genuine market conviction.

Setting Stop-Loss Levels: Define price points at which you are willing to cut losses to limit risk.

Profit Targeting: While the trend remains bullish, set reasonable profit goals and exit points accordingly.

Five-Year Outlook: How Far Will Gold Prices Go?

Looking ahead, considering the influence of dollar de-dollarization, the US current account deficit, and long-term low-interest expectations, there is a high probability that gold prices will continue an upward trend over the next five years.

Major bank forecasts suggest that the $4,900 per ounce level could be surpassed by the late 2020s. Long-term holders may find opportunities to accumulate wealth through reasonable gold investments.

For Thailand, converting from dollar prices implies that 96.5% gold bars could reach 75,000–80,000 THB within five years.

Closing Remarks: Gold Price Adjustment Still Has Many Stories

While this article discusses trends and factors, the only certainty in the market is change. Investors considering entering the gold world should be prepared for volatility in the coming months, years, or even five years.

The key lies in understanding fundamental factors, planning carefully, and applying risk management strategies. Where gold prices will go in five years depends on decisions by central banks worldwide, trade policies, and investor sentiment shifts. The main edge in this game is patience and continuous learning.