BITCOIN’S POST-HALVING SUPPLY SHIFT IS NOW MATHEMATICALLY LOCKED IN

Bitcoin’s fourth halving on April 20, 2024 reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, cutting daily issuance from roughly 900 BTC to 450 BTC.

As a result, Bitcoin’s annualized supply inflation fell to around 0.83%, with more than 93.8% of the total 21 million BTC already issued by the end of 2024.

The halving permanently shifted miner economics toward transaction fees and locked Bitcoin into a lower issuance baseline that will remain in place until the next halving around 2028.

Bitcoin’s fourth halving has permanently reduced new supply. This article examines the post-halving issuance schedule, inflation rate, miner economics, and why Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are now mathematically fixed.

BITCOIN’S FOURTH HALVING OCCURRED ON APRIL 20, 2024

Bitcoin’s fourth block reward halving took place on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000, when the block subsidy was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, in accordance with Bitcoin’s protocol-defined issuance schedule that triggers a halving every 210,000 blocks.

This supply adjustment was executed automatically by consensus rules embedded in Bitcoin’s protocol, without any governance vote or discretionary intervention, reinforcing the network’s predetermined and transparent monetary policy.

DAILY BITCOIN ISSUANCE DROPPED BY 50%

Following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s daily issuance was mathematically reduced from approximately 900 BTC per day to 450 BTC per day, based on a fixed block reward of 3.125 BTC and an average block time of ten minutes.

On an annualized basis, this change lowered new Bitcoin issuance from roughly 328,500 BTC per year to 164,250 BTC per year, permanently constraining new supply growth regardless of market demand, miner behavior, or macroeconomic conditions.

ANNUAL BITCOIN INFLATION FELL BELOW 1%

As a direct consequence of the halving, Bitcoin’s annualized supply inflation rate declined to approximately 0.83%, calculated using circulating supply levels and post-halving issuance rates.

For comparison, the annual supply growth rate of gold is commonly estimated at 1–2%, while fiat currency supply growth is determined by central bank policy rather than fixed issuance rules.

TOTAL BITCOIN SUPPLY STOOD AT 19.7 MILLION BTC BY END-2024

Blockchain data shows that Bitcoin’s circulating supply reached approximately 19.7 million BTC by December 31, 2024, leaving fewer than 1.3 million BTC yet to be mined before the protocol-defined maximum supply of 21 million BTC is reached.

At this point, more than 93.8% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist had already been issued, underscoring the diminishing absolute impact of future halvings while increasing their relative importance in percentage terms.

MINER REVENUE STRUCTURE SHIFTED AFTER THE HALVING

The halving also altered Bitcoin miners’ revenue composition by cutting block subsidy revenue in half overnight, increasing the relative importance of transaction fees in total miner income.

In the months following the halving, transaction fees accounted for a materially higher share of miner revenue compared to pre-halving periods, aligning with Bitcoin’s long-term design in which network security is expected to transition gradually from subsidy-driven to fee-supported economics.

SUPPLY IS FIXED, ADJUSTMENT IS COMPLETE

Unlike monetary policy in traditional financial systems, Bitcoin’s supply adjustment following the April 2024 halving is final and irreversible, with no mechanism for accelerating issuance during periods of high demand or slowing issuance during downturns.

By the end of 2024, the market was no longer anticipating the halving as a future event; instead, it had fully absorbed the new issuance baseline, which will remain in effect until the next halving, expected around 2028, when the block reward will fall again to 1.5625 BTC.

This chart shows the number of bitcoins that will exist in the near future. The Year is a forecast and may be slightly off.

FROM EVENT TO BASELINE

With the fourth halving fully in the past, Bitcoin’s reduced issuance rate has transitioned from a forward-looking narrative catalyst into a baseline condition, reshaping the asset’s long-term supply profile in a manner that is transparent, predictable, and independently verifiable.

This shift does not depend on sentiment, policy signals, or institutional adoption cycles; it is enforced directly by Bitcoin’s code and consensus rules, making post-halving supply dynamics one of the few variables in global finance that can be described with mathematical certainty.

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〈BITCOIN’S POST-HALVING SUPPLY SHIFT IS NOW MATHEMATICALLY LOCKED IN〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。