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The Christmas season in the crypto market feels like a collective pause button has been pressed. Originally expecting a holiday rally to boost the market, the charts reveal—this market is just too lackluster.
Bitcoin is stuck oscillating between $87,000 and $88,000, with hardly any clear direction; Ethereum fell below $2,900 and feels even more lifeless. The entire market's volatility is among the lowest of the year. Some jokingly say that the fluctuations of an average person's ECG are more intense than this candlestick.
Why is this happening? Two main reasons are at play—first, the "collective holiday" of market makers. During Western Christmas, most market makers have halted operations, leading to a sharp decrease in trading depth, and no one is eager to push the market actively. Second, with large options expirations on December 26 and at the end of the month, long and short positions are in a delicate balance. Traders are watching cautiously, afraid that breaking this balance might give opponents an opportunity. Trading volume has even hit a new low for the second half of the year.
On-chain data reflect the same "quiet" scene—active addresses have dropped 22% from the year's high in October. Interestingly, long-term holders are quietly increasing their positions. This seemingly silent, underlying accumulation might be the brewing ground before the next market rally.
Since the peak of $126,000, Bitcoin has already corrected nearly 30%. It sounds alarming, but reviewing historical data shows that such a correction is quite common during past crypto bull markets. The market is squeezing out bubbles, and institutions interpret it this way.