In-depth analysis of the prediction market track, uncovering 5 dark horses on BNB Chain

Writing by: Changan, Amelia, Biteye Content Team

Meme is receding, and prediction markets are taking over. This is not a guess; it is a major capital migration happening now.

When Polymarket obtained full US licensing and received $2 billion in funding from the NYSE parent company, you should realize: the Meme era of chasing cats and dogs is over, and the era of chasing “truth” has officially begun.

This article will guide you:

• Understand why prediction markets suddenly exploded;
• Review promising black horse projects on BNB Chain;
• Teach you step-by-step how to proactively position and capture early red envelopes.

1.1 Why did prediction markets suddenly become popular?

The moment market sentiment truly shifts is often not during a crash, but when it becomes numb.

You will find: the “dirt dogs” are still posting, but you are too lazy to click; the narratives are still flying, but in your mind only one sentence remains: Anyway, it will all zero out in the end.

Meme didn’t die suddenly.

It died due to a structural contradiction: tokens are permanent, but attention is fleeting.

When Pump.fun lowered the token issuance threshold to near zero, supply began to expand exponentially; meanwhile, retail traders’ time, emotions, and capital are linear. The only result: hot spots become shorter, and slow declines last longer.

At this moment, a new gameplay that looks “less exciting” but is more brutal quietly starts consuming Meme’s lost funds.

It is called: prediction markets.

1.2 The more uncertain the world, the more people need the truth

In this era of information explosion and fragmentation, media can only provide timeliness but cannot guarantee accuracy.

For example: someone used AI to forge a biography of CZ, not only with a complete cover outline but also uploaded it to Apple Books and other publishing platforms, even fooling media. At that time, Meme’s market value was炒至三百万美元.

Under Meme’s mechanism, speculators can get news instantly by scanning the chain, but they are also easily the liquidity of rumors. Because in the logic of “fast is everything,” the cost of verifying authenticity is too high; by the time you finish checking and verifying, the price may have already zeroed out.

This is precisely the significance of prediction markets: they introduce a Skin in the Game mechanism, forcing participants to reveal true expectations through real money betting.

Its logic is simple: Talk is cheap, show me the money.

Prediction markets are a process of transforming “cognition” into “assets.” Starting from an initial state where Yes and No each occupy 50%, participants vote with real money for information; the more buyers, the higher the price, and the real probability of the event is quantified by real-time price fluctuations.

1.3 From “speculating on coins” to “speculating on events”: the upgrade of speculation

The decline of Meme is mainly because: asset issuance is too fast, and attention runs even faster. When attention is dispersed, what remains are tokens that exist permanently, making slow declines the norm.

Prediction markets solve these problems:

• Clear settlement date: Focus speculative funds on the window when the event occurs. When the event ends, funds are settled, and there are always winners. Solves the problem of Meme’s slow decline torment.
• Friendly to speculators: By clarifying win/loss outcomes, ensure that users can always get settlement benefits, improving the survival environment for speculators from the bottom-up.
• More concentrated capital: No longer troubled by endless flow pools and same-name tokens, but focus attention on a limited number of important events.

This is not just a change in gameplay but an upgrade in the dimension of speculation. You don’t need to run faster than others; you only need to see more accurately.

1.4 Regulatory breakthrough, institutional entry

The reason prediction markets can be hot is not only because of a good mechanism but also because they are recognized by regulators.

On September 3 this year, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan successfully ended a years-long regulatory tug-of-war. Polymarket broke Kalshi’s long-standing monopoly in compliant markets, proving that prediction markets can break out of the “legal gray area” and transform into transparent, compliant “information derivative markets.”

More than a month later, on October 7, NYSE parent ICE invested $2 billion, and prediction markets officially entered Wall Street’s view. This marks prediction markets as a new asset class officially settling into the core of global finance.

The compliance breakthrough has completely eliminated legal concerns for institutional capital entry. Prediction markets are rapidly shedding the label of “crypto niche toys,” evolving into financial infrastructure that quantifies global risks and public opinion, on par with S&P indices and gold prices.

As shown in the chart, the weekly trading volume of prediction markets recently experienced an unprecedented exponential surge, once surpassing $4 billion.

Data source: Dune

2. Leading and emerging prediction market projects

2.1 Kalshi: The brave one fighting regulation head-on

Before discussing prediction markets, we must pay tribute to Kalshi. If Polymarket is about getting free by a backdoor, Kalshi is about tearing open the compliance gap head-on.

Before 2024, US prediction markets were basically in a gray zone, with the biggest uncertainty coming from regulatory attitudes. Kalshi obtained the CFTC’s designated contract market (DCM) license as early as 2020, becoming the first regulated platform focused on event contracts. Later, in the approval of political contracts, it fought a protracted battle with the CFTC—between 2023-2024, the CFTC once banned related contracts. Kalshi sued the agency in court and won; ultimately, the CFTC gave up the appeal in 2025.

This victory is regarded by many as a key turning point for the legalization of prediction markets: this is not gambling, but a protected financial derivative market.

The cost of compliance seems high, but it brings institutional trust and a regulatory moat. Kalshi is the earliest and most mature fully regulated CFTC platform, allowing US institutions and retail traders to legally and directly trade event contracts with USD. Although competitors like Polymarket are gradually re-entering the US market by the end of 2025, Kalshi’s first-mover advantage and strict compliance mode still make many see its value.

But the price of compliance is self-isolation. Strict KYC, US-only users, operating only within the US “intranet.” This weakens its connection with a larger global user base.

2.2 Polymarket: The first-generation king, but not the end

If Kalshi wins in court, Polymarket undoubtedly wins in the market, with capital markets giving the answer in the most real terms.

This year, its valuation jumped threefold—from the $1 billion unicorn threshold at the start of the year to $8 billion (after receiving $2 billion from NYSE parent ICE), and recent rumors suggest it is seeking a new round valuation of $15 billion.

During the US elections, it carried massive capital betting. For the “2024 US Presidential Election” prediction pool alone, the total trading volume exceeded $3.2 billion.

A deep dive shows that Polymarket’s success stems from dual victories in product and compliance:

From a product perspective: It downplays the “gambling” attribute and emphasizes the informational aspect. During elections, even CNN and Bloomberg cite its odds. It successfully establishes an authoritative feel, making users think they are not gambling but pricing information.

Compared to early prediction markets like Augur, Polymarket optimized user experience to the extreme—no obscure on-chain interactions, settled directly with USDC stablecoin. It allows Web2 users to enter prediction markets seamlessly.

From a compliance perspective: Polymarket proactively settled with regulators (CFTC). This “fine” is actually a “ticket” to mainstream acceptance, clearing compliance hurdles and paving the way for entering the US market.

However, this combination of compliance + focus on top players has a ceiling.

Polymarket’s success is built on a high-control, heavily operational model. While safe, it is highly inefficient. Like a meticulous workshop, heavily reliant on official team aesthetics and institutional funds. It performs perfectly for big single events like US elections, but when facing more fragmented, high-frequency mass demands, this centralized framework is too slow and heavy.

It has successfully validated the “0 to 1” of prediction markets, but several core contradictions hindering the industry’s “1 to 100” explosion remain unresolved in its model.

2.3 The seven unresolved issues of prediction markets

If we peel off the label of Polymarket as the prediction market leader and deeply experience its product, we will find many fatal problems still exist.

1. Centralized market creation and operation dependence: Existing platforms like Polymarket face natural “cognitive walls” for non-English users due to geopolitical and cultural differences. Moreover, current market creation heavily depends on official team screening, leading to resource concentration in highly commercialized tracks.

This “centralization” directly results in niche markets being barren, with many interesting needs in vertical fields ignored due to lack of operation. For example, Chinese-speaking users are unfamiliar with high-liquidity tracks like politics and culture on Polymarket, and do not want to spend much time on these. Conversely, some niche tracks they understand and are interested in lack liquidity.

2. Order book mode and liquidity threshold: Mainstream platforms use order book mode, meaning each new market needs sufficient liquidity walls; otherwise, small trades cause sharp price swings, damaging user experience, creating a negative cycle of “lack of liquidity → user loss → further liquidity shrinkage.”

This order book mode leads to poor trading experience for long-tail, niche topics due to initial lack of liquidity.

3. User experience gaps: Besides liquidity, another major issue is poor user experience.

In short-term predictions of high-volatility assets like BTC/ETH, probabilities fluctuate sharply with real-time price candles. Due to a time lag between frontend display and on-chain transactions, users placing “Yes” bets at low probability may find the actual transaction executed at high probability.

The probability at transaction is not the same as at click; this poor initial experience often causes high user churn.

4. Low settlement efficiency: When users finally win after much effort, they find their profits haven’t arrived yet, needing to wait for market settlement.

Many markets have very slow “result adjudication.” For example, Polymarket relies on UMA’s oracle, and a controversial market may take days or longer to settle after multiple votes, tying up funds long-term. UMA’s design (Optimistic Oracle) makes tampering with final results a potential risk.

5. Oracle scalability issues: Currently, oracles heavily depend on “manual” (e.g., UMA voters) decentralized adjudication, unable to efficiently handle potentially thousands of permissionless markets in the future.

When market numbers explode, this “arbitration system” will be overwhelmed.

6. LP yield is single: Not only retail experience is poor, but market makers (LPs) also do not fare well.

Due to the prediction market mechanism, LPs’ profit model is single and risk exposure hard to manage, limiting the willingness of professional market makers and DeFi funds to participate.

Moreover, prediction market participants find it hard to use their positions in other DeFi scenarios (staking, etc.), limiting application scenarios.

7. Market manipulation: But these are not the worst; the most fundamental challenge to prediction markets is the following issue:

Prediction markets aim to measure the truth of events, but when利益驱动足够大，参与者的动机将从「衡量事件」异化为「推动事件」，让市场来为这个被创造出来的「事实」背书。

If the market outcome is ultimately decided by media reports, the best strategy is to bribe media rather than study the event itself. At this point, the market is no longer a “truth discovery machine,” but a financial tool that legitimizes manipulated “facts.”

This August, the “Green Dildo” incident at WNBA courts is a typical case: in Polymarket’s market on “Will there be thrown objects on the court,” the majority position is “No,” making the odds for “Yes” extremely high.

Participants found that by spending a few tens of dollars on tickets and props, and risking minimal violation, they could throw objects on the court and swing prediction profits worth thousands of dollars.

2.4 Where is the new generation of prediction markets heading?

The problems of Polymarket are precisely the best entry points for newcomers. For those without historical baggage, there is no need to copy a “cautious giant.” The pain points have already given clear guidance: users are tired of review processes and are calling for freedom; capital is tired of inefficiency and longs for leverage.

1. Moving toward permissionless creation: To address the niche market scarcity caused by official screening, the new generation prediction markets aim to lower creation barriers.

Through algorithm-driven automatic liquidity mechanisms, anyone can quickly establish prediction events targeting specific cultural circles (e.g., Chinese niche markets), niche technical topics, or vertical industry trends, achieving the true “everything can be priced.”

2. Introducing leverage to improve capital efficiency and attractiveness: To solve the long-standing issues of “high capital occupation and low yield elasticity,” introducing leverage is the core variable to activate liquidity:

Traditional prediction contracts of 0-1 USD are essentially full-margin spot trades. With leverage, users can use minimal margin to gain excess returns during major events (e.g., 10x leverage predicting Fed rate hikes). This attracts high-frequency speculators and allows institutions to hedge macro risks at lower costs.

For markets with over 90% win rate but extremely low odds, ordinary users often lack interest. Leverage can amplify the volatility of low-odds markets, making markets that are “high certainty but unprofitable” regain liquidity depth.

Although leverage is key to improving capital efficiency, its implementation path in prediction markets is still exploratory. Simple “margin collateralization” has inherent flaws: due to generally poor liquidity and binary settlement (price can jump from 0 to 1 instantly), systems find it hard to perform smooth liquidation during volatility.

3. Deepening vertical fields: No longer pursue “big and comprehensive,” but focus on deep pricing in vertical sectors. For example: Football fun for sports, Limitless for crypto price predictions.

Vertical platforms attract highly professional consensus traders by focusing on specific tracks (e.g., sports, crypto volatility, macro data). This precise participant profiling concentrates capital in core areas, forming high order book depth and greatly reducing slippage costs for large trades.

4. Improving user experience: From “standalone apps” to “traffic aggregation.” Giants like Coinbase, Jupiter have traffic, but building prediction markets in-house is costly (involving compliance, oracles, odds calculation). Therefore, the industry is evolving toward “aggregator models”:

Prediction markets do not have a unified CA like Meme coins. Giants leverage traffic as front-end, integrating underlying liquidity from Kalshi and others, solving the pain point of “no market depth,” greatly improving market discovery and trading experience.

3. Overview of prediction market projects within BNB Chain ecosystem

Looking at major public chains: Solana is seeking transformation due to Meme’s decline, with ICM, Base focusing on creator economy; after Yzi Labs S2 unveiling, BNB ecosystem’s strong support for prediction markets is a clear signal of commitment.

Moreover, BNB Chain’s prediction markets have developed a completely different pattern: recent token launches in prediction markets mostly chose ICO methods, with Football fun ICO on Legion with only airdrop to 1,000 users; Space ICO without airdrop. In contrast, BNB Chain prediction markets uniformly opt for airdrops to reward community.

Therefore, we need to examine BNB ecosystem prediction projects separately.

3.1 BNB Chain prediction market racecourse

@opinionlabsxyz

Led by Yzi Labs, completed $5 million seed round funding, with participants including Echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold Trading, Amber Group, etc.

Platform growth is rapid, now among top three prediction markets, transitioning from niche tool to macro financial infrastructure. Users interested in macro trading, DeFi, and event prediction should explore deeply.

Recently, Dune published an 88-page industry report, praising Opinion as “a leading example of macro prediction markets.” Total nominal trading volume exceeds $8.2 billion (from $180 million on launch to now), with multiple days surpassing $200 million.

@predictdotfun

Predict.fun is a native DeFi prediction market on BNB Chain, founded by former Binance research head and PancakeSwap founder @dingaling. Graduated from EASY S2.

Unlike other prediction projects, Predict.fun allows prediction positions as DeFi funds, supporting yield, lending, and leverage via on-chain protocols to improve capital efficiency and permissionless liquidity.

Currently, Predict.fun has snapshots of addresses with active trading history on BNB Chain meme traders, Aster DEX, Polymarket, Limitless, Myriad, Opinion, etc. Users can check eligibility and unlock airdrops through tasks (deposit, invite tweets, complete certain trading volume).

On its first day, it achieved over $10 million in trading volume.

@0xProbable

A native on-chain prediction protocol co-founded by PancakeSwap and Yzi Labs. Offers zero-fee predictions, supports deposits in any token (automatically converted to USDT), and allows anyone to launch new markets.

Backed by UMA’s Oracle, focusing on sports and crypto price movements and other unique events, with a points program for users.

Officially launched on the 18th of this month, supporting zero-cost predictions. Currently, several real-time event markets are open, such as NBA games (e.g., Grizzlies vs Timberwolves, Bulls vs Cavaliers).

@42

Graduated from EASY S2, introducing Bonding Curve to convert real-world event outcomes into tradable, liquid tokens—producing high volatility, high liquidity, and ultimately fair and transparent settlement. 42 transcends traditional prediction markets, resembling more an “event asset issuance platform.”

Founder @Leozayaat emphasizes repeatedly that 42 is not a traditional prediction market variant but a new asset class, with core mechanisms different from any prediction market or launchpad. Users can buy and sell freely at any time without worrying about liquidity.

It creates an event asset issuance platform based on real events as underlying, theoretically never “cutting leeks.” This elegant mechanism innovation has the potential to further upgrade the entire ecosystem gameplay.

The mainnet mechanism has been tested and is ready; a new, more beautiful UI is planned for late January. Currently in Beta, actively promoting event markets.

@Bentodotfun

Graduated from EASY S2, supported by Base (Batches 001 - Second Prize ).

Prediction markets are the truth engine but face challenges like difficulty in discovery, lack of personalization, isolation, and limited profit space.

Bento allows users to reorganize global prediction markets and user-generated markets, creating market designs like challenges and tournaments, providing better discovery mechanisms for markets and traders.

Just like Roblox revolutionized gaming: building personalized games with LEGO-like blocks, inviting friends, creating micro-economies; Bento is doing the same for prediction markets.

They believe trading and speculation are new types of games, but also require social-native, user-generated modes for rapid growth.

Core team includes co-founders @abhitejxyz and @PratyakshInani, former co-founders of Filament, working together for 5 years.

Currently in Early Access testing (not yet officially launched on mainnet).

3.2 Infrastructure for prediction markets also needs layout

As mentioned earlier, prediction markets are not just about platform mechanisms; infrastructure also needs change. The BNB Chain ecosystem clearly recognizes this: platform improvements alone are not enough; infrastructure innovation is needed. Therefore, prediction market infrastructure is also being introduced into the ecosystem.

@APRO_Oracle: An AI-enhanced decentralized oracle platform focusing on providing high-fidelity, reliable off-chain data for cutting-edge ecosystems. Vertically serving RWA, AI agents, prediction markets, DeFi, and other high-growth sectors.

Graduated from EASY S1, supported by Polychain Capital, Franklin Templeton (FTDA_US), ABCDE, and others, with multiple funding rounds completed.

The platform has completed over 77K data validations and 78K AI Oracle calls, continuously supporting top RWA, AI, and prediction market projects.

The token $AT is listed on Binance spot, with a current market cap of $28 million and FDV of $122 million. Among the more advanced projects in S1.

@soraoracle: A self-sovereign decentralized oracle built on BNB Chain, focusing on providing a true reality layer for prediction markets based on real-world events.

Currently in early development, developers can deploy production-grade prediction markets via its TypeScript SDK + CLI with one click.

4. Summary of expert opinions

@Dune (on-chain data platform): Prediction markets are not gambling but are becoming the world’s most accurate information network. More accurate than polls and expert surveys, faster than econometric models, clearer hedge mechanisms than traditional derivatives, and more transparent signals than media reports.

Matt Huang (Founder of Paradigm) @matthuang: Prediction markets are the truth-telling machines at a civilization scale, but they are also a way to seek interesting and useful financial exposure with breadth-first priority.

Ella (Head of Yzi Labs) @ellazhang516: Prediction is innate to humans—from hunting to AI, it is practiced everywhere. Prediction markets built on this have huge potential. The real opportunity is not copying Polymarket but solving its pain points—using faster oracles, seamless user experience, and aggregated liquidity, embedding prediction behavior into daily scenes like TikTok, evolving from a trading product to a social-level infrastructure of truth and consensus.

Winry (KOL) @vonzz6: Her experience and views on the three major prediction projects on BNB Chain show that prediction markets have entered a high-frequency game stage, marking a shift from “single dominant platform” to “multi-product competition.”

Sean Ziqi (KOL) @Seanzhao1105: Analysis of Binance’s prediction market race mechanism. He cites Taleb’s theory that fierce competition within BNB Chain is essentially “system evolution through individual sacrifice.” Although this competition may erode early projects like Opinion, it builds a robust, self-iterating prediction market system for the entire Binance ecosystem.

EWL (KOL) @jeg6322: Comparing emerging prediction markets, he points out that differentiation is the core competitive advantage. After evaluating five new projects, he notes: Solana’s @factmach offers the most innovative product for subjective opinion betting; BNB Chain’s @predictdotfun relies more on CZ’s social endorsement.

TIGER (KOL ) @tiger_web3): Comments on the prediction market race on BNB Chain, noting a trend toward “L2-ification,” where project competition increasingly relies on background, fame, and ecosystem resources, while demands for pure technological innovation are decreasing.

Jiayi (XDO founder) @mscryptojiayi: She points out that the new generation prediction markets show a combination of UGC + Bonding Curve features. Unlike Pump.fun’s sentiment mapping, the new paradigm transforms “PVP zero-sum games” into “event outcome settlement” deterministic games.

BITWU (KOL/4XLabs) @Bitwux: He states that prediction markets have shown a clear explosive trend this year, with a long-term logic: when information is priced, probabilities become assets. Prediction markets are resilient to bull and bear markets; gamblers always exist, which is their narrative charm.

5. Step-by-step guide: How retail traders can participate?

Prediction markets on BNB Chain are still in early stages. We can accumulate potential rewards through platform usage (usually points, which may be converted into token airdrops in the future). Specific strategies include:

1. For projects like Opinion and Predict.fun that are already live, trading volume equals future airdrops; trading is mining.

2. For projects like Bento and 42 that are not yet public beta, register early on the waitlist.

Let’s review how to participate in these projects:

1. Conservative choice: Opinion Labs

Opinion is currently a good choice: visit app.opinion.trade, connect your wallet, and place market orders, limit orders, provide liquidity, or hold positions to accumulate points (distributed weekly based on activity). Points may be related to future tokens.

2. Zero-fee trial: Probable

Probable is more early-stage: visit probable.markets for zero-fee prediction trading (supports any token automatically converted to USDT). Although it currently has no official points system, its website has a points page. Many users participate with small amounts and stay active on Discord, expecting future points or retroactive rewards.

3. “Wool gatherers”: Predict.fun

Predict.fun is in airdrop phase, based on snapshots of your trading on Polymarket, Opinion Labs, Aster, Limitless, Myriad, etc., but requires certain trading volume to unlock airdrops.

4. New gameplay: 42

Currently in whitelist testing, with a novel mechanism (Bonding Curve issuing event assets). Use Biteye invite code BITEYE25 for early testing.

5. Mysterious gift pack: Bento

Bento is in Alpha Testnet, with mainnet expected early January. Register on waitlist.bento.fun for early access and a chance to win Bento Mystery Box.

6. Conclusion

From Pump.fun to HyperLiquid, the crypto industry has shifted from “fat protocols” that build mass wheels to “fat applications.”

In the past, we obsessed over high-performance public chains and complex L2 architectures, but that was just infrastructure excess. The real value lies in who can carry real trading demand.

Prediction markets are the ultimate form of this “fat application”—they do not produce information but provide the most precise pricing venue for fragmented cognition worldwide.

Polymarket is just the prologue of this transformation. In the future, prediction markets will become the unchanging infrastructure of a quantized world. Will you continue to gamble in the “pass-the-parcel” game, or use your cognition to price the future in the market of truth?

The answer lies at the moment you place your bet.