Vitalik Predicts Bug-Free Code Will Become Reality in the 2030s

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Vitalik Predicts That Bug-Free Code Will Be Available in the 2030s Original Link: https://coinedition.com/vitalik-predicts-that-bug-free-code-will-be-available-in-the-2030s/

Smart Contracts and Safety-Critical Systems

Apps built as smart contracts inside programmable virtual machines continue to expose a deeper structural weakness in blockchain design. Recent operator actions, including a hard fork to recover funds after a Balancer exploit, pushed that concern back into focus. Network operators acted decisively, yet the event reinforced a core question about how blockchains should safely add functionality.

According to c-node, a zk developer, much application logic may not belong in endlessly mutable smart contracts. He argues that only a limited set of contracts justify long-term existence and that these components could benefit from base-layer security and client diversity. Consequently, the industry may need to reconsider whether general-purpose virtual machines are the safest way to add functionality at scale.

There are only 7 contracts worth writing, and they should just be enshrined in the base layer and get security from client diversity.

Why Bugs Persist in Critical Software

Bugs remain inevitable today because developers still trade safety for speed and flexibility. Besides, software complexity continues to rise faster than verification quality. However, Vitalik Buterin expects this balance to change over time. He predicts that the claim that bugs are unavoidable will stop being true in the 2030s.

Registering a prediction: “bugs are inevitable, you can’t make bug-free code” will stop being true in the 2030s (lots of software will continue to have bugs because in their use case, functionality gains are more important, but if you want bug-free code you’ll have it)

Several forces drive this shift. Programming languages now embed stronger type systems and stricter memory rules. Additionally, auditing methods improved through automation and adversarial testing.

Moreover, formal verification tools increasingly prove correctness rather than assume it. Hence, safety-critical code slowly becomes provable instead of hopeful.

According to research by Buterin, defect density already declined sharply under extreme engineering conditions. In 1990, a 1,000-line safety-critical program likely shipped with eight to ten latent bugs. By 2000, disciplined teams reduced that number to four. Consequently, by 2010, elite efforts pushed defects closer to one or two.

Cost Curve of Verification

By 2020, teams spending one million dollars per 1,000 lines achieved near-zero known defects. However, that outcome required exhaustive review and mathematical validation.

Buterin clarified the assumption when discussing modern results. He stated, “that’s assuming extreme top-tier effort going into verification of those 1000 lines, the next step is for that bar to drop”.

Significantly, future gains will not depend solely on spending more money. They will come from better defaults. Languages will prevent entire bug classes automatically. Additionally, proof systems will integrate directly into development workflows.