2025-12-25 11:23:22

This market is experiencing a war without gunfire. On the surface, it seems calm, but beneath the surface, turbulent currents are surging.

Having been in the crypto space for nearly ten years, I have seen too many moments where people said "this time is really different." But the change happening at the end of 2025 is truly worth pondering.

Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of $126,000 to around $86,000, a decline of over 30%. Strangely, this drop was not accompanied by any major scandals or market crashes.

Let's compare with history. In 2014, exchanges were hacked; in 2018, the ICO bubble burst; in 2022, a major platform collapsed—these events all caused sharp declines. The story back then was clear: bad news → price collapse. Now, it's different. Institutional participation is higher, regulatory frameworks are clearer, yet prices are falling even more dramatically. Why is that?

**Structural Changes Beneath the Surface**

Just looking at technical indicators reveals the depth of volatility. Bitcoin's monthly RSI has already fallen below 30. In Bitcoin's 15-year history, this has only happened four times. After each occurrence, Bitcoin has risen at least 100% within 6-12 months.

But this time, it might really be different.

What is the most striking phenomenon? The performance of gold and silver has outpaced Bitcoin. Gold has risen 68% this year, silver an even more astonishing 139%, while Bitcoin has actually fallen 7%.

This divergence is very interesting. It breaks the narrative of "Bitcoin as digital gold." Instead, it suggests that Bitcoin is more like a high-risk tech stock—rising with tech stocks during good economic times, and being sold off when the economy weakens.

The "Bitcoin-Gold ratio" has plummeted from about 40 ounces at the beginning of the year to around 20 ounces. What does this mean? Measured in gold, Bitcoin is losing value. For long-term believers, this is a signal worth deep reflection.

BTC0.86%

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OnchainArchaeologist

· 3h ago

Diamond hands need to wake up; gold is the real safe-haven asset.

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0xSleepDeprived

· 3h ago

Wait a minute, gold and silver are surpassing BTC in seconds, I really can't hold it anymore.

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TokenSleuth

· 3h ago

Ten years of being a seasoned investor, and this time I really feel something's off... Without a black swan, it dropped 30% on its own. How did Bitcoin become the punching bag of tech stocks?

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 3h ago

A 30% decline without a black swan event is indeed strange. Every major crash in history has a story, but now, the story is gone and the price has already moved on. Quite interesting. To be honest, the data showing RSI dropping below 30 only occurred four times before. It used to be a signal, but now... I need to take another look. Gold and silver crushing Bitcoin is the real "battlefield repositioning," indicating that the market is re-pricing risk assets. The supply line is broken, which is what veterans fear the most. Bitcoin transforming from a "safe haven asset" to a "tech stock" means its nature has completely changed. Positions need to be adjusted. The gold ratio dropping from 40 to 20 simply means Bitcoin has depreciated relative to gold. This is not a technical issue; it's a market psychology issue. Long-term holders should ask themselves, do I still dare to add to my position now?

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screenshot_gains

· 3h ago

Really, this wave of decline is a bit abnormal. No major scandals or failures, yet it dropped like this, indicating underlying issues. Gold and silver crushing Bitcoin—that's the most frightening part. The image of digital gold has collapsed. I've seen RSI drop below 30 a few times, but this time feels different. Are institutions actually dumping? Bitcoin's price from 40 to 20—this data is quite extreme. No wonder believers are starting to rethink. Wait, so Bitcoin is now just a high-risk tech stock? Should I still hold? Old-timers with ten years of experience say it's different this time. But the hardest part is not being able to pinpoint what's different. Feels like a turning point. Let's see how it develops later. Gold is laughing. This irrational plunge is even more terrifying. At least bad news can be anticipated; right now, there's nothing, just this. High regulation involvement by institutions actually correlates with sharper declines. This logic is a bit surreal. Monthly RSI is at its fourth lowest in history. The first three times doubled. How likely is it to break the record this time?

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MevTears

· 3h ago

The surge in gold and silver compared to the decline of BTC, this logic indeed can't hold up anymore. Is the story of digital gold about to go bankrupt?

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BearMarketLightning

· 3h ago

Gold and silver crushing BTC, this really hits hard... The image of digital gold hasn't even stabilized before crashing; now it looks like a high-risk tech stock that gets hammered whenever the economy weakens... RSI broke below 30 four times and doubled in value each time, but this time... hmm, it really feels different, a bit unsettling. The conclusion that Bitcoin is depreciating sounds so uncomfortable; it feels like the entire logic has been reversed. A big drop without any news is the most terrifying—at least with hacking incidents, you still know what's going on. Institutions coming in causing even sharper declines? What are they trying to do? If this wave is truly a structural shift, believers better think carefully.

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