#预测市场 Several signals from CZ's year-end Q&A are worth paying attention to. First is the data aspect—BNB Chain's annual transaction volume increased by 600%, with daily active users surpassing 2 million. This growth rate is indeed impressive among public blockchains, but what needs to be clarified is whether the ecosystem scale can truly surpass that of a single business, which determines long-term sustainability.

The statements about the prediction market are quite interesting. CZ openly admits that he cannot currently determine who will win, but points out that the next hot event (the US presidential election) will temporarily create winners. This essentially reflects that the prediction market is still driven by short-term event opportunities rather than a foundation with long-term competitiveness. From an on-chain perspective, it is necessary to track the fund inflow and outflow patterns around key events, as well as whale holdings changes—these often can preemptively reflect turning points in market perception.

A deeper analysis is warranted for the stablecoin sector—CZ believes it is still at the 1.5 generation level. This indicates that there is still huge room for scaled applications. From the perspective of on-chain contract tracking, observing cross-chain flows of various stablecoins, the frequency of smart contract interactions, and large transfer patterns can provide a clearer picture of which products are gaining real usage.

Regarding the market size of cryptocurrencies—he mentioned that the penetration rate is less than 1%, leaving several orders of magnitude of growth potential. This judgment is based on the continuous optimization of infrastructure and user experience. For investment research, the key is not to believe this conclusion blindly, but to observe the actual fund flows on-chain under this assumption and identify signals that are currently accumulating.