2026-01-04 09:22:26

New Year's Day these days have indeed been a slump, with a cold affecting judgment, and even market hotspots are not being followed closely. Fortunately, things have now stabilized, so let me give everyone a summary of the recent market logic.

**News Side**

The US actions against Venezuela caught the market by surprise. The negative news may have been fully digested already, but the final impact depends on how US stocks perform after the opening. The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is only 16.6%, so don't expect any surprises. The market is still digesting bad news, and US stocks usually rise sharply and then fall back.

**Cryptocurrency Observation**

Mainstream altcoins led by Dogecoin have recently rebounded strongly, which does have a bit of an altcoin season feel. Dogecoin has risen over 20 points, and PEPE is even more exaggerated, jumping over 50%. This momentum should not be underestimated. However, if you didn't buy in during New Year's Day, don't rush to chase the high now. I warned twice in the live broadcast about Dogecoin and PEPE—many people were afraid of missing out, but they got caught when they entered the market. At this position, you must wait for signals and take profits in batches; don't be greedy.

**Technical Analysis**

Bitcoin's performance is relatively weak. It only broke through the key resistance of 90,400 this morning. The daily chart has already shown four consecutive bullish candles, a clear sign of bullish momentum. The 4-hour moving averages are very strong. According to trend-following principles, since it broke through significant resistance, a pullback to support levels is an opportunity to go long.

Ethereum moved even earlier, breaking through major resistance in advance, with a relatively stronger macro force. But now, the 1-hour chart shows a divergence signal at the top, which may face a pullback. However, ETH has already thoroughly broken through its original structure, and the bullish momentum is strong. The suggestion is to mainly buy on dips, and only consider shorting when a divergence at the top appears.

DOGE-1.44%

PEPE-1.86%

BTC-0.47%

ETH-0.41%

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GweiWatcher

· 01-07 06:27

It's another "cold affecting judgment" situation. We all understand the fear of missing out, but chasing PEPE's 50% surge is really too reckless. --- Dogecoin PEPE's recent move was indeed fierce, but now buying at this point is likely just catching a bag holder. Let's wait and see. --- Bitcoin broke below 90,400. It's finally starting to move; I have a feeling this time it's not a false breakout. --- Even with bearish divergence on Ethereum, people still dare to boast about bullish momentum. That logic is a bit hard to believe. --- The Federal Reserve's rate cut probability is only 16.6%. How can the market still be so excited after this data? It's a bit outrageous. --- How many times have we heard "take partial profits in batches"? How many actually follow through? --- Getting knocked out by the New Year's cold is really tough. Missing many opportunities must have crushed your mentality. --- Primarily trading on dips sounds very professional, but where has risk control gone? --- I missed the PEPE surge of over 50%. Looking at the current position, it seems risky; it feels like it might fall. --- Is the Venezuela situation really a sign of a sharp rise followed by a pullback? It seems like there could be more fluctuations.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 01-07 05:02

Buddy, even with a cold, you can analyze the market. That's dedication.

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0xSunnyDay

· 01-06 23:55

Once the cold is over, I start reviewing. This professional spirit is undeniable. However, even though PEPE is already up 50%, advising people not to chase, this wave is indeed quite timid and reasonable.

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LayerZeroJunkie

· 01-06 03:46

Getting a cold really messes people up, but let's not rush to chase the highs. This wave of fake rebounds makes it easy to miss out or get caught in a trap.

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BlockchainFries

· 01-04 09:50

Dogecoin and Pepe chasing highs really have a sharp tongue; at this point, we really need to wait and see.

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BrokenYield

· 01-04 09:49

ngl, the doge pump is giving major bagholders' cope vibes rn... those 50% pepe moves? classic leverage liquidation bait, fr fr. nobody learns.

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Ser_APY_2000

· 01-04 09:45

Even a cold can affect judgment; this guy really treats the crypto world as a job.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 01-04 09:38

Still chasing the market despite catching a cold, this guy is dedicated. But that PEPE wave was really a high-priced chase package.

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HypotheticalLiquidator

· 01-04 09:29

Dogecoin PEPE looked exciting, but the borrowing rate has already started to climb... This is the easiest time to step into a domino effect, one chain of liquidations and it's all over. The group chasing the high probably doesn't have a clear idea of the liquidation price, and the risk control threshold should have been triggered long ago.

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PumpBeforeRug