Venezuela's Hidden Bitcoin Could Trigger a Major Supply Lock-Up

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Venezuela’s Hidden Bitcoin Could Trigger a Major Supply Lock-Up Original Link:

• Reports suggest Venezuela quietly built up to 600,000 BTC during sanctions.
• If seized, the Bitcoin would likely be frozen for years.
• This would remove about 3% of the circulating supply from the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $93,000 after United States forces detained Venezuela’s president on drug trafficking charges. The legal case is in New York. The market focus is not the trial itself, but what could be taken with it.

Public trackers show Venezuela holding just 240 BTC, worth about $22 million. But, multiple intelligence and media reports point to a far larger position built off the books during the years of sanctions. Estimates center near 600,000 BTC. At current prices, that is close to $60 billion. If confirmed, this is not noise. It is close to 3% of the circulating Bitcoin supply.

How Bitcoin Was Built

The reported buildup started around 2018, when Venezuela began selling gold from the Orinoco Mining Arc. Roughly $2 billion in gold was allegedly swapped into Bitcoin at prices near $5,000. That alone equals about 400,000 BTC. At $90,000-$93,000, that is now worth over $35 billion.

Oil trade added more. As banking routes closed, oil buyers were pushed to settle in stablecoins. Stablecoins can be frozen, so reports say the funds were converted into Bitcoin to remove that risk. Over time, this created a steady pipeline into BTC.

Interestingly, domestic policy also fits the pattern. Private mining was shut down in 2024, and machines were seized. The state-backed Petro token was quietly abandoned. The result was a massive drop in crypto activity while value was centralized under state control abroad.

What Seizure Would Mean for Supply

If US authorities identify and seize the wallets, the most likely outcome is a frozen float. Creditors tied to Venezuela’s defaults would immediately file claims. Legal fights would drag on for years. During that time, Bitcoin would not move.

For the market, that is, supply removed from circulation. Germany sold 50,000 BTC in 2024 and triggered a 15-20% drawdown. This stash is more than twelve times larger. A forced sale would damage prices and reduce the value of the assets themselves, which makes it unlikely.

Another path is strategic holding. The US already holds over 325,000 BTC from past seizures. Adding hundreds of thousands more and locking them up would tighten the supply further. Traders already see signs of this view.

CNBC noted that Bitcoin is back above its 50-day average, and the $100,000 call is the most active option on Deribit.