The previous analysis of the LIT project’s opening rhythm concluded that the selling pressure from airdrop distribution would initially cause a drop, followed by a gradual bottoming out and rebound. Looking back now, this logic is basically confirmed.

My own operation was to hedge at $3.34, then close the hedge position at an average price of 2.3. To be honest, I feel a bit regretful; at the time, I expected the selling pressure combined with the market’s uncertainty, as well as various FUD voices on social platforms, to provide an opportunity to buy below $2.00. In the end, the lowest price only dropped to 2.25, just a little short.

Now it seems that the market’s reaction speed is sometimes like this—selling pressure isn’t as fierce as imagined. However, from the subsequent rebound and bottoming process, the initial judgment framework still holds. That’s also why it’s important to adjust expectations flexibly—numbers will never follow predictions exactly.