Recently, there's a common complaint in the market—altcoins, it seems, are no longer as attractive.

But I want to clarify a fact: it's not that altcoins have no chance, but that this bull market has pushed the valuations of altcoins too high.

Let's look back at what the previous market cycle looked like.

DOT's market cap soared from 300 million to 50 billion, DOGE jumped from 200 million to 70 billion, BNB went from 1 billion to 600 billion. Back then, many small coins with a market cap of just a few tens of millions could easily increase ten or twenty times. Why was that possible? One sentence—coins with low market caps are easier to manipulate, and whales have to push them; if they don’t, they can't move the goods.

Now, looking at this cycle, everything has changed completely.

Since 2024, a large number of "King-level VC coins" have emerged in the market. The projects haven't even really started running, yet their market caps are estimated at tens of billions or even hundreds of billions. STRK peaked at 50 billion, W broke through 16.5 billion, SAGA, ZK, DYM, ETHFI—each more outrageous than the last.

What about retail investors? As soon as they enter, they are stuck at high levels, and whales are too lazy to bother pushing the prices up again—they just steadily dump. You might think the altcoin season is over, but the truth is— the altcoin bubble has been inflated to its limit, and now it’s entering a necessary correction phase.

What is the market doing now? It’s deflating the altcoin bubble.

You will gradually notice some changes. Newly listed coins on exchanges are starting to see their initial market caps decline; VC projects are no longer starting at tens of billions; the market is beginning to relearn to respect market cap.

What if this trend continues to deepen?

When the next bull market starts, those truly with technology, stories, and capital attention on their altcoins will likely return to a starting point of a few hundred million or even tens of millions in market cap.

Do you know what that means? It means—the altcoin season could really come again, and it will be super fierce.

The problem is, how many people who have gone through this cycle still dare to chase? Most are probably already scared off.

So I’ve been telling my brothers that in the crypto world, it’s never about who runs the fastest, but who can survive until the next cycle. The current stage is not the time to chase gains or sell in panic, but to calm down, understand the cycle patterns, grasp the valuation logic, and find the right opportunities to get in again.

The truly big opportunities often arise at that moment—when the entire market still lacks the courage to believe.