Ethereum's Critical Inflection Point: Is $3,350 Ready to Crack?

Ethereum consolidating above the 100-hour moving average following a pullback from $3,450, with break and retest strategy shaping near-term trajectory. The recent pullback has created a clearer technical setup for traders focused on break and retest strategies. ETH rebounded from $3,150 support and is now trading near $3,200, establishing a fresh bullish trend line with key support forming around $3,180. The market structure suggests buyers remain engaged, but conviction will only materialize once price demonstrates it can decisively move through the $3,350 resistance band.

The Rebound Foundation: Where We Stand Now

Ethereum initially descended from the $3,450 high but found meaningful demand near $3,150 — a critical zone that held firm. From that support base, ETH rallied through $3,300 and $3,320, even briefly trading above $3,400 before encountering fresh seller interest. The advance peaked at $3,448, a mere $2 shy of the previous high, before moderating.

The pullback that followed pulled price back below $3,250 and tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which typically reveals whether underlying strength exists. The outcome was conclusive: buyers stepped in defensively, ETH stabilized above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, and a new bullish trend line emerged with support around $3,180. Current price action at approximately $3,290 reflects consolidation within this constructive range, keeping the near-term bias tilted toward the bulls provided this floor remains intact.

The Break and Retest Strategy in Play: Targeting $3,350 and Beyond

The most likely scenario involves Ethereum executing a classic break and retest pattern at $3,350. First, ETH must decisively close above this resistance zone—not just briefly test it. Once accomplished, a retest of that level (either intraday or on the next session) would confirm it has flipped from ceiling to support, a crucial psychological transition.

If the break holds, the path reopens toward $3,400, where bulls can reassess momentum. Should $3,400 be reclaimed cleanly, $3,450 comes back into play as the next natural target, with $3,500 emerging as an extended objective if buying accelerates further. The hourly MACD is gaining momentum in bullish territory, and the RSI sits above 50, both factors supporting the near-term upside case.

This break and retest framework gives traders multiple entry opportunities: the initial breakout above $3,350, the retest back to newly-turned support, or continued strength above $3,400. Each level offers tactical significance for positioning.

Downside Risks: When the Structure Deteriorates

The constructive setup is not guaranteed. Failure to clear $3,320 would signal weakening momentum, bringing $3,200 into focus as initial support. More critically, a decisive close below $3,150 would invalidate the bullish structure entirely, pulling Ethereum down toward $3,040, then $3,020, with $3,000 representing the next firm support zone.

Given the current consolidation, such a breakdown would need meaningful selling pressure — the fact that buyers have consistently defended dips suggests it remains unlikely in the immediate term. However, it remains the primary risk scenario that traders must monitor.

Momentum Indicators Confirm the Bullish Lean

Technical indicators reinforce the near-term bias:

• Hourly MACD: Gaining momentum within bullish territory, suggesting sustained buying interest
• Hourly RSI: Trading above the 50 midpoint, confirming that buyers maintain intraday control

These readings explain why defensive buying has been so consistent on dips — the momentum backdrop supports the bull case, at least for now.

The Bottom Line: Proof Required

Ethereum is positioned for an upside attempt, but execution matters. The break and retest strategy at $3,350 will be the true test of whether this rebound has substance. Until $3,350 is decisively breached and retested as support, the rally remains in a “building” phase rather than a confirmed trend. The structure is improving, buyers are willing to defend, and the technical indicators lean bullish — but the market has not yet provided the definitive proof that sends Ethereum decisively higher.