Employment data divergence combined with rising energy geopolitics, the crypto market faces dual considerations

【Crypto World】The latest US January economic data shows a clear contrast. December ADP employment surged to 410,000, indicating that corporate hiring demand remains robust; however, the actual JOLTS job openings fell to 7.146 million, reflecting a cooling in mid-term labor demand trends. This “current stability, weakening outlook” structure makes the Federal Reserve’s policy judgment more complex.

Geopolitical tensions have intensified. US sanctions on Venezuelan oil have significantly escalated—US forces seized two oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude on the high seas, one of which was escorted by the Russian Navy. This level of action and symbolism far exceeds previous measures, effectively creating a semi-blockade of Venezuela’s “shadow fleet,” while also testing the true bottom line of sanctions and freedom of navigation between Russia and the US.

The impact on financial markets is dual and complex. In the short term, strong ADP data support the dollar’s trend and interest rate expectations; but the downward trend in JOLTS combined with rising energy geopolitical risks suggests macro uncertainties have not truly dissipated. Oil supply risks re-emerge, and inflation expectations and risk aversion sentiment may ferment simultaneously.

The crypto market is currently influenced by both “employment data divergence” and “energy geopolitical escalation.” In the short term, pricing may lean towards maintaining current interest rates, but mid-term risks include demand cooling and supply shocks resonating together. The market’s key is not just a single data point, but whether liquidity expectations will usher in a new directional turn.