#Gate广场创作者新春激励 The Three Major Changes in the Crypto Market and New Trends in 2026
Recent market anomalies behind the deep trends:
Trend 1: Fundamental shift in market structure - the end of the speculative retail-led cycle and the arrival of the institutional era:
• Net inflow of BTC on exchanges drops to a three-year low, indicating short-term speculators are exiting.
• Continuous outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, with a single-day net outflow of 14,484 BTC.
• The market is transitioning from a retail-dominated cycle to institutional liquidity distribution.
Market narrative transformation:
• From simple store of value to a multi-functional application platform.
• Functional assets (like ETH) are beginning to show long-term potential beyond BTC.
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate is showing signs of recovery, with structural advantages emerging.
Trend 2: Regulatory storm hits in full force - compliance becomes the survival bottom as global regulatory frameworks are rapidly implemented:
• The US CLARITY Act legislation process accelerates, clarifying legal boundaries.
• CRS and CARF collaborative regulatory systems are launched, bringing crypto assets under “financial account” regulation.
• China’s central bank will implement a “three-tier filtering” mechanism in 2026: licensing access, compliance review, and law enforcement coordination.
Regulatory red lines continue to tighten:
• OTC trading, Ponzi schemes, and airdrops involving recruitment are classified as criminal offenses.
• The risk coefficient for individuals participating in virtual currency trading rises to over 90%.
• Italy’s withholding tax increases from 26% to 33%, and the €2000 tax exemption threshold is canceled.
Trend 3: Liquidity expansion driven - macro environment shifts to easing, signaling a turning point in global liquidity:
• Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, increased bank lending, and falling mortgage rates.
• The probability of Fed rate cuts in 2026 rises to a relatively high level.
• China’s central bank continues its “moderate easing” stance, flexibly using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.
Institutional funds re-enter the market:
• Bitcoin ETF has recently rebounded, rising about 8% over the past week.
• Large companies like Bitmine Immersion continue to increase ETH holdings.
• Visa’s stablecoin settlement volume has an annualized rate of $4.5 billion, with demand growing month by month.
Trend 4: Accelerated technological innovation - Ethereum’s moat continues to widen, highlighting its technological advantages:
• Mainnet scaling plans will increase throughput tenfold, supporting a target price of $4,000.
• Dominance in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and DeFi remains unshaken.
• Long-term bullish outlook to $40,000, with broad recognition of ETH’s potential to surpass BTC.
Digital Renminbi ecosystem upgrade:
• From “Digital Cash 1.0” to fully entering “Deposit Currency 2.0.”
• Bank wallet balances accrue interest at the current deposit rate and are included in deposit insurance.
• Transaction volume is expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan in 2026.
Investment insights and risk warnings
Three certain tracks:
1. Compliance survival - regulatory red lines continue to tighten, compliance is the survival line.
2. Pragmatism rising - revaluation of functional assets’ value.
3. Institutionalization trend - long-term holders strengthen control over supply.
Core risk warnings:
• Significant increase in tax reporting complexity and compliance costs.
• Reduced cost-effectiveness for small investments, higher market entry barriers.
• Cross-border tax evasion routes are thoroughly blocked, with no regulatory blind spots.
Recent market anomalies behind the deep trends:
Trend 1: Fundamental shift in market structure - the end of the speculative retail-led cycle and the arrival of the institutional era:
• Net inflow of BTC on exchanges drops to a three-year low, indicating short-term speculators are exiting.
• Continuous outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, with a single-day net outflow of 14,484 BTC.
• The market is transitioning from a retail-dominated cycle to institutional liquidity distribution.
Market narrative transformation:
• From simple store of value to a multi-functional application platform.
• Functional assets (like ETH) are beginning to show long-term potential beyond BTC.
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate is showing signs of recovery, with structural advantages emerging.
Trend 2: Regulatory storm hits in full force - compliance becomes the survival bottom as global regulatory frameworks are rapidly implemented:
• The US CLARITY Act legislation process accelerates, clarifying legal boundaries.
• CRS and CARF collaborative regulatory systems are launched, bringing crypto assets under “financial account” regulation.
• China’s central bank will implement a “three-tier filtering” mechanism in 2026: licensing access, compliance review, and law enforcement coordination.
Regulatory red lines continue to tighten:
• OTC trading, Ponzi schemes, and airdrops involving recruitment are classified as criminal offenses.
• The risk coefficient for individuals participating in virtual currency trading rises to over 90%.
• Italy’s withholding tax increases from 26% to 33%, and the €2000 tax exemption threshold is canceled.
Trend 3: Liquidity expansion driven - macro environment shifts to easing, signaling a turning point in global liquidity:
• Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, increased bank lending, and falling mortgage rates.
• The probability of Fed rate cuts in 2026 rises to a relatively high level.
• China’s central bank continues its “moderate easing” stance, flexibly using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.
Institutional funds re-enter the market:
• Bitcoin ETF has recently rebounded, rising about 8% over the past week.
• Large companies like Bitmine Immersion continue to increase ETH holdings.
• Visa’s stablecoin settlement volume has an annualized rate of $4.5 billion, with demand growing month by month.
Trend 4: Accelerated technological innovation - Ethereum’s moat continues to widen, highlighting its technological advantages:
• Mainnet scaling plans will increase throughput tenfold, supporting a target price of $4,000.
• Dominance in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and DeFi remains unshaken.
• Long-term bullish outlook to $40,000, with broad recognition of ETH’s potential to surpass BTC.
Digital Renminbi ecosystem upgrade:
• From “Digital Cash 1.0” to fully entering “Deposit Currency 2.0.”
• Bank wallet balances accrue interest at the current deposit rate and are included in deposit insurance.
• Transaction volume is expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan in 2026.
Investment insights and risk warnings
Three certain tracks:
1. Compliance survival - regulatory red lines continue to tighten, compliance is the survival line.
2. Pragmatism rising - revaluation of functional assets’ value.
3. Institutionalization trend - long-term holders strengthen control over supply.
Core risk warnings:
• Significant increase in tax reporting complexity and compliance costs.
• Reduced cost-effectiveness for small investments, higher market entry barriers.
• Cross-border tax evasion routes are thoroughly blocked, with no regulatory blind spots.
