Gate News bot, QCP pointed out in its market analysis that the Israeli-Iraq conflict has entered its sixth day, missile exchanges continue, and a diplomatic breakthrough is far away. G7 leaders have repeatedly called on Iran to resume nuclear talks with the United States. Negotiations were scheduled for this Sunday, but now they seem unlikely. Markets are increasingly concerned about a potential restructuring of the power structure in the Middle East and the implications this could have for regional geopolitics, as the United States, Russia, and China all intervene through proxies. The Strait of Hormuz is a priority. If Tehran is cornered, the disruption or complete blockade of this critical choke point will be a real tail risk. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for a large share of global crude oil shipments, and any supply shock will have a significant impact on inflation. We expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady while taking a hawkish stance, acknowledging that geopolitical instability poses new upside risks to inflation. The Fed is currently expected to cut rates twice in 2025 and two more in 2026. However, our base case is that the Fed is likely to take a more cautious tone in its SEP, which could mean only one rate cut in 2025, in contrast to market expectations. Such adjustments could put pressure on risky assets, including Bitcoin and broader digital assets, due to declining liquidity expectations.