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Japan may reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, triggering a chain reaction; USDT depegging risk draws renewed attention
Expectations are rising that Japan may conduct large-scale sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries, and this potential shock is spreading from traditional financial markets to the crypto industry, especially Tether (USDT), which is deeply tied to U.S. Treasuries. Japan currently holds $1.189 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making it the largest foreign holder globally, but as Japanese government bond yields hit multi-year highs, the attractiveness of holding U.S. Treasuries is declining.
Analysis indicates that the U.S.-Japan yield spread has narrowed from 3.5% to 2.4% within six months. If it drops to around 2%, it will significantly boost the incentive for capital to flow back to Japan, potentially prompting Japanese institutions to sell as much as $500 billion in U.S. Treasuries. The broader yen carry trade amounts to $1.2 trillion; if interest rates rise and the yen strengthens, this structure could quickly unravel, triggering a chain of global asset liquidations.
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