Analyst: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4%.

GoldenOctober2024

2025-06-25 15:26:41

On June 25, Jin10 data reported that Daniel von Ahlen and Adrea Cicione from TS Lombard wrote that the additional yield required by investors holding longer-term US Treasuries, known as the term premium, has not changed much recently. This stability indicates that the yield on 10-year US Treasuries is unlikely to fall below 4%, as “if the risk premium does not compress significantly, there is limited room for further declines in yields.” They stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields.

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