EncryptionLittleBaby

#比特币价格预测 The Bitcoin market in 2026 has really diverged. According to Delphi Digital, the factors pointing to a rise in Bitcoin include loose liquidity, central bank rate cuts, and gold reaching new highs. However, Galaxy Research says the market is too volatile to predict, and Luke Gromen, a long-term bullish expert, has turned short-term bearish for several reasons—AI power bottlenecks, no breakthrough in gold, and threats from quantum computing.
The most concerning development is Tether's movement; they hold more gold reserves than Bitcoin, which hints at something. It seems market sentime

#美联储政策 The position of Federal Reserve Chair is so coveted that even BlackRock CIO is jumping into the fun. Honestly, the competition is quite fierce, with Kevin Hasset currently leading with a 54% probability, and the other two candidates also have their own highlights.
However, from the crypto perspective, this matter has a significant impact. The Federal Reserve Chair appointment relates to the future direction of monetary policy, directly affecting liquidity and the performance of risk assets. The market will be waiting for news next week, and whether Trump will make an official announcem

#比特币价格预测 Bitcoin has fallen from $126,000 to $80,500, and the RSI index has dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years. Such an extremely oversold condition indeed tends to trigger a rebound. Looking at the data, the weekly RSI is only 35. The last time it was at this level was in January 2023, when BTC was only $15,500-$17,000. Now it's at $80,500, indicating that this wave of decline is indeed fierce.
However, from a spectator's perspective, the most interesting part is the recent change in sentiment. After the Bank of Japan's rate hike was implemented, the market quickly reversed it

#加密货币监管立法 Wow, this article completely changed my understanding of stablecoins. I used to think that stablecoins would drain bank deposits, but the data in front of me shows—there's no large-scale outflow at all.
Thinking about it carefully, it makes sense. We keep our money in banks not because they are super safe or highly efficient, but for convenience—mortgages, salaries, credit cards all in one place, hard to move elsewhere. So even though stablecoins are more convenient, most people are still reluctant to bother.
But the key reversal here is: it is precisely because stablecoins pose a t

#预测市场 The prediction market Kalshi's recent move is quite interesting. They initially submitted a contract for US college athlete transfers to the CFTC, but then NCAA issued a statement saying that student athletes could be harassed, threatened, or have their competitions compromised, and accused them of disrupting recruitment... Then Kalshi backtracked and said, "Although we submitted it, it might not go live."
This is a typical test-and-retreat approach. Essentially, it touches on the sensitive nerves of the US sports industry—imagine if there were a market allowing people to freely bet on

#美联储降息预期 The Bank of Japan has a 98% chance of raising interest rates today, this is getting interesting. Once the rate hike is confirmed, Japan's benchmark interest rate will rise from 0.5% to 0.75%, ending the era of ultra-low interest rates lasting 30 years.
The key question is how this will affect the Federal Reserve. Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If Japanese bond yields rise, funds are likely to withdraw from the U.S. market, causing U.S. Treasury yields to go up. This could dampen the prospects of the Fed cutting interest rates.
In simple terms, the previous decline in U

#加密监管政策 A new round of changes in the crypto regulatory landscape is coming. The U.S. Senate has just approved Trump's nominations for the CFTC and FDIC chairs, which could mean a more relaxed attitude towards the crypto industry in the United States.
The CFTC was already expected to become the main regulatory body for cryptocurrencies, and with the new chair taking office, the policies supporting crypto that acting chair Caroline Pham previously pushed for are likely to continue or even strengthen. This is a good sign for the crypto community, at least it won't be getting more restrictive.
H

#美联储政策 Trump is now creating suspense around the Fed Chair candidate, and this move is quite interesting. Waller, Boman, and two Kevins are all on the shortlist, and he also said "everyone would be a good choice," which is quite a tactic.
The key is that the identity of the new chair will be announced within a few weeks, which is a huge amount of information for the crypto world. The change of Fed Chair directly impacts the future direction of interest rate policies, and interest rate policies are a major factor influencing the entire market liquidity.
Now, it's just waiting to see who will u

#预测市场 The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year has dropped to only 11%, and the data from Polymarket is becoming increasingly sobering. Just a month ago, some people were shouting "it will definitely break $100,000 by the end of the year," but now it seems like a pipe dream. However, the prediction probability for $95,000 is still 32%, which feels like a more realistic expectation.
Interestingly, prediction markets have now become a barometer. Coinbase CEO is right—it's much more reliable than traditional polls—after all, real money is involved, and everyone has to be responsibl

#预测市场 The prediction market sector has recently encountered issues. Polymarket's copy trading bot was exposed to contain malicious code, with the developer playing tricks on GitHub—the program automatically reads wallet private key files upon startup, resulting in users' funds being directly lost. Even more outrageous, this guy repeatedly modified the code and submitted multiple updates, clearly hiding malicious intent.
This is outrageous; trying to earn a spread through copy trading backfires. SlowMist Technology has already issued a warning, so everyone should be more cautious. Before using

#比特币价格走势 The 2026 Bitcoin forecast is really polarized. Galaxy Research says the volatility is too high to predict, but it might hit a new all-time high; Tom Lee's team predicts a drop to $60,000-$65,000 in the first half of the year. One says it could rise to $250,000, while the other predicts a dip first and then a rise to $115,000. The difference is huge.
I think the key still lies in how to view this dip opportunity. If there is a clear correction in the first half of the year, it could be a good entry point for many people. After all, the long-term positive factors are still there, liqui

#加密货币监管政策 Kalshi's recent move is interesting. They submitted a document indicating plans to launch a college athlete transfer contract, but then immediately shelved it. Basically, they were somewhat discouraged by regulatory pressure and public opinion.
NCAA directly lashed out, saying that this could lead to harassment and abuse risks for student athletes, and also threaten the integrity of competitions. From this perspective, their concerns are not unfounded—treating student transfers as betting stakes could indeed cause problems.
This incident reflects a phenomenon: although prediction ma

#AI与加密货币结合 CZ's words hit the core pain point of AI trading, and after hearing them, I couldn't help but say he's an insider. Basically, it's a vicious cycle: why would truly profitable AI algorithms sell cheaply to others? Isn't trading for oneself more profitable? I can't argue with this logic.
What's even more heartbreaking is the next part—if everyone uses the same AI strategy, the market becomes a "secret" that everyone knows. Those who enter early make money, and later entrants get cut. This conflicts with the essence of group psychological games. Speed and computing power become even m

#稳定币市场发展 Listen to me, this new research on stablecoins is quite interesting. Previously, everyone thought stablecoins would heavily compete with bank deposits, but what happened? Data shows there hasn't been a large-scale outflow of deposits. Why? Because although transfers are convenient, a complete set of financial services—mortgages, credit cards, direct salary payments—are all tied to bank accounts. This level of convenience can't be easily broken apart.
What's even more interesting is that although stablecoins haven't "killed banks," they have become a form of competitive pressure, forc

#比特币价格走势 The Fed's recent moves are quite interesting. RMP essentially amounts to a QE in disguise, with liquidity about to be pumped again. Arthur Hayes is bullish on Bitcoin, predicting it will hit $124,000, which is a pretty aggressive outlook. However, I did notice a detail—he sold $1.5 million worth of ETH in a counter move, which is quite intriguing.
On the surface, it's strategic positioning; on the less favorable side, it's shouting bullish while selling off holdings. We've seen this kind of behavior many times in the crypto space. In the short term, BTC might fluctuate between $80,00

#AI与加密货币结合 Coinbase's report is quite interesting. Will the crypto market in 2026 resemble 1996 more than 1999? It suggests that we need to take it slow and not expect a meteoric rise.
The key point is that institutions need to change their mindset, shifting from simple buying and selling to more professional trading and custody models, which is what "DAT 2.0" refers to. In plain terms, institutional players need to operate more meticulously.
What attracts me the most are these directions—AI and crypto automation agents, rising demand for privacy technologies, and RWA tokenization. The combin

#美联储流动性政策 Interesting, the signals of liquidity easing are becoming clearer and clearer. The Fed expanding its balance sheet, major central banks cutting interest rates, and fiscal deficits driving monetization... these conditions combined indeed open a window for risk assets.
Delphi Digital is right; although it won't be a downpour like in 2020, the current environment does have a clearer and more predictable easing rhythm. Both gold and M2 have hit new highs; historically, these two indicators usually lead Bitcoin, so the recent rally in Bitcoin still has a solid logical basis.
The view fro

#美联储降息政策 The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year has directly risen to 75.6%, and the heat of rate cut expectations has instantly cooled down. The market was originally expecting some surprises in the new year, but the Fed gave a "hold" answer.
Looking at this data, there is only a 44.4% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by March, less than half the confidence. This means there is little room for liquidity improvement in the short term, which is indeed a bit awkward for the crypto circle, as rate cut expectations have always been an