# 美联储降息预期

#美联储降息预期 The signals of a weakening labor market are indeed worth paying attention to. The revisions to October and November non-farm payroll data confirm the trend of stagnant employment growth, which has a substantial impact on the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
From an on-chain perspective, such macro expectations shifts often trigger adjustments in capital flows. Rising expectations of rate cuts usually mean increased attractiveness of risk assets, but the key is to observe the actual actions of large on-chain holders—such as whale wallet inflows and outflows, changes in DEX trading

Next week's market has some interesting developments. The Federal Reserve Chair nomination, GDP data, and Christmas market holiday all happen at the same time, creating opportunities for market volatility.
Focus on two main directions: first, whether Trump will announce a new chair candidate during Christmas. Currently, Kevin Hasset has the highest probability (54%). This news will directly impact interest rate cut expectations and market sentiment; second, Tuesday's GDP data, which serves as a litmus test for the effectiveness of previous rate cuts. If the data falls short of expectations, it

#美联储降息预期 I recently saw news about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and I’m a bit confused, but I feel this might be an important signal for the crypto world? 🤔
I heard that the CPI report performed well, with inflation actually below the Fed’s 2% target, and there’s an economic advisor named Hasset who said the Fed has "ample room" to cut rates? What does this mean, and how might rate cuts affect cryptocurrencies?
I’ve heard people discuss before that when interest rates decline, more people tend to seek high-yield assets, and cryptocurrencies might get renewed attention? But som

#美联储降息预期 Seeing Hamak's words, my first reaction was that a familiar scene has replayed. The collapse of expectations for a rate cut at the end of 2022 essentially stemmed from this divergence—markets betting that the central bank would soften, only to be repeatedly slapped in the face by hawkish voices. Now, a similar tug-of-war is happening within the Federal Reserve, just with roles reversed: previously dovish members pushed for rate cuts, now hawks are steadfastly defending high interest rates.
Inflation, this beast, is more stubborn than imagined. After three rate cuts, the market cheere

#美联储降息预期 The Bank of Japan has a 98% chance of raising interest rates today, this is getting interesting. Once the rate hike is confirmed, Japan's benchmark interest rate will rise from 0.5% to 0.75%, ending the era of ultra-low interest rates lasting 30 years.
The key question is how this will affect the Federal Reserve. Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If Japanese bond yields rise, funds are likely to withdraw from the U.S. market, causing U.S. Treasury yields to go up. This could dampen the prospects of the Fed cutting interest rates.
In simple terms, the previous decline in U

#美联储降息预期 Recently, there has been a divergence in the voices of Federal Reserve officials. Harker mentioned that interest rates might be maintained until spring, mainly because concerns about inflation have not dissipated. This signal is actually worth our serious attention.
Many people have been expecting the benefits brought by rate cuts during this period, but I want to remind everyone that maintaining stable interest rates is precisely a test of our mindset and strategy. The uncertainty in the macro environment instead requires us to manage our positions more cautiously.
My experience is

#美联储降息预期 The Fed's new version of quantitative easing (RMP) is here, and it's more profound than expected!
Simply put, when central banks reintroduce liquidity, the risk of long-term fiat currency depreciation becomes evident. Against this backdrop, hard assets like Bitcoin will become an increasingly popular choice — acting as a never-depreciating safe haven.
Arthur Hayes's prediction is quite interesting: in the short term, BTC might hover around 80,000 to 100,000 USD, but once the market truly understands the logic of "RMP=QE," this cognitive upgrade will lead to a price increase, directly

#美联储降息预期 Next week, the Federal Reserve Chair nomination will be announced, and the market will start speculating again. I looked at the probability distribution, and Hasset is leading, but how much of these numbers are real and how much are inflated is anyone’s guess. This reminds me of a few years ago when macroeconomic data expectations were announced, and I was always caught off guard.
When GDP data, unemployment rate, PCE inflation index, and other macro indicators come out, the crypto community starts creating stories—either saying "rate cuts are certain to cause a surge" or "rate hike

#美联储降息预期 The labor market has collapsed, and the Federal Reserve is definitely going to continue cutting interest rates 🔴 Non-farm payroll data is right there, with employment growth completely stagnating, which is a signal!
Once the rate cut expectations are locked in, funds will inevitably look for an exit. Brothers who are still on the sidelines, just wait and see — institutions will move out of bonds, and retail investors will follow the trend into risk assets. Meme coins, with their high volatility, are bound to take off sooner or later 💥
The end-of-year market rally is coming, and the

The divergence at the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly apparent. Hamrick's recent remarks essentially dampen expectations of rate cuts next year—inflation remains her main concern, not employment. This has a direct impact on our follow-trade strategies.
Those traders who previously bet on rapid rate cuts now need to reassess their position logic. I've been observing a few aggressive traders; they were still shorting the dollar in early December, but now they have to face the reality of the Fed's policy shift—interest rates staying high until spring, which could give the dollar a reboun