CryptoWorldYouth

#稳定币 Seeing Galaxy's 2026 forecast and Luke Gromen's views, a familiar feeling arises—this kind of uncertainty I experienced in 2017 and 2021.
Interestingly, the prediction that stablecoin trading volume will surpass the US ACH system indicates that the maturity of crypto infrastructure is indeed improving. But what I pay more attention to is the deeper logic reflected in Tether's movements. Luke mentioned Tether increasing its gold holdings and investing in AI, which is worth pondering. A stablecoin giant's asset allocation adjustments often signal their judgment of the liquidity environment

#比特币价格与估值 Seeing Arthur Hayes's remarks, what flashed through my mind was the 2020 cycle.
At that time, the Federal Reserve launched unlimited quantitative easing, and the market was filled with voices of "all-time highs," with Bitcoin soaring from $3,700. Many people asked me whether to go all-in, and my answer was: first, watch the Federal Reserve's true intentions. RMP and QE may appear different on the surface, but their core logic is the same—both are about releasing liquidity to hedge risks. Hayes has grasped this point correctly.
But there's a historical detail worth recalling: each re

#比特币价格预测 Seeing these forecasts for 2026, my mind can't help but flash back to the cycles we've experienced over the past decade or so. Delphi Digital suggests that liquidity may improve, and new highs in gold indicate a spring for Bitcoin; Galaxy Research paints a picture of a highly volatile but still potentially new high future, while Luke Gromen, a long-term holder, suddenly turns bearish—this kind of divergence, I've seen it in 2017 and 2021.
The difference this time is that the underlying logic has changed. It's no longer just a game of FOMO versus panic, but a more complex interplay of

#加密货币监管框架 When I saw this news, a few key moments in the crypto market over the past decade flashed through my mind. The ICO frenzy in 2017, the regulatory storm in 2018, the DeFi wave in 2021... each wave has been reshaping the boundaries of this industry. And the emergence of stablecoins, to some extent, is a cry from the market for order.
Major jurisdictions around the world are shaping legislation for stablecoins, and this signal is very clear. The US, the EU, Singapore—everyone is trying to tame this beast with regulatory frameworks. Zhao Zhongxiu and their proposals actually touch on a

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Tom Lee's explanation, you still have to admit that this set of rhetoric is very sophisticated. Short-term defense and long-term bullishness coexist, sounds great, but I've heard this kind of argument too many times over the years.
Back to the story of 2017. At that time, some analysts were shouting "Bitcoin will reach $100,000," while advising clients to reduce positions to hedge risks. We all thought this was clever risk management, but what happened? When the price fell to $3,800 in 2018, those "long-term bullish" voices disappeared. Then in 2020 and 2021, it repeated again

#网络钓鱼与欺诈 Seeing this 50 million USDT phishing case, my mind immediately flashed back to the various scams I've seen over the past decade. Early exchange hacks in 2014, ICO scams in 2017, Yield farming flash loan attacks in 2020... Each cycle brings new tricks, but fundamentally they all exploit human negligence.
The reason why "address poisoning" this time succeeded precisely exposes the industry's most fatal weakness—the contradiction between convenience and security. The ellipsis truncating the address (0xbaf4...B6495F8b) looks friendly, reducing cognitive load, but it is this "friendliness

#预测市场 Seeing Kalshi ultimately shelve plans to launch university athlete transfer contracts, the first thought that came to mind was—this is a significant milestone in the development history of prediction markets.
Looking back at the trajectory over the years, every time prediction markets attempt to break boundaries and expand coverage, they encounter the same issues: regulatory bottom lines and societal backlash. Remember the controversies surrounding political prediction markets a few years ago? Going further back, the history of sports betting follows a similar pattern—markets want to in

#美联储降息预期 Seeing Hamak's words, my first reaction was that a familiar scene has replayed. The collapse of expectations for a rate cut at the end of 2022 essentially stemmed from this divergence—markets betting that the central bank would soften, only to be repeatedly slapped in the face by hawkish voices. Now, a similar tug-of-war is happening within the Federal Reserve, just with roles reversed: previously dovish members pushed for rate cuts, now hawks are steadfastly defending high interest rates.
Inflation, this beast, is more stubborn than imagined. After three rate cuts, the market cheere

#预测市场 Seeing Brian Armstrong's discussion on prediction markets, my mind immediately flashed back to several cycles I've witnessed over the years.
The DAO incident in 2016 is a prime example. At that time, no one truly understood how decentralized governance would work, and a technical vulnerability directly destroyed a project valued in the tens of millions. If there had been a genuine prediction market back then, what would the real bets of market participants have reflected? They would likely have sniffed out the risks earlier than the confident analyses in the media. Because liars would f

#比特币价格预测 Seeing this forecast of $86,000-$92,000, a few past memories flashed through my mind. The crazy surge at the end of 2017, the long bear market in 2018, and the recovery in 2020 — each time, analysts drew various ranges, but the market's true rhythm has always been controlled by deeper forces.
Wintermute's assessment actually reflects a very real current situation: we are in a typical year-end adjustment period. Tax considerations, portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking—these seemingly technical terms are actually driven by institutional investors doing year-end accounting. This reminds

#美联储政策 Seeing the interest rate swap indicating a further 3 basis points relaxation by the end of 2026, my mind flashes back to those moments ten years ago. The "811 Capital Account Reform" in 2015, the policy shift at the end of 2018, the liquidity flood after the 2020 pandemic—each Federal Reserve policy signal has stirred waves in the crypto market, though back then our sensitivity to these data points was far less than it is now.
Three basis points may seem negligible, but the implications behind them are worth pondering. Moving from the high interest rate environment at the end of last y

#预测市场 Seeing CZ's year-end Q&A, I recall several cycles we've gone through over the years. The prediction market sector was mentioned, and honestly, it reminded me of how many projects were overhyped during the 2017 bull run. Back then, some people confidently claimed that a certain direction was the future. But what happened? After the big waves, only a few survived.
But this time is different. CZ made it very clear—next year’s US election will be a litmus test, and the true key to victory lies in long-term competition. I've heard this kind of statement countless times: short-term events cre

#比特币价格走势 Seeing this prediction, a familiar feeling arises in my mind. The high of $126,080, the retest at $84,000, RSI dropping below 30 into oversold territory... I’ve seen these data points before, more than once.
Since 2023, this rebound pattern after extreme overselling has occurred five times, each time unfolding into a bullish trend. The rhythm of history is always similar, but never exactly the same. Rising to $170,000 in three months sounds aggressive, but in the context of history, it’s not unfounded—it's based on the patterns observed over the past five cycles.
What’s truly interes

#加密监管政策 Seeing Yi Lihua's words, I am reminded of several key moments over the past decade. The ICO bubble in 2017, the despair of the bear market in 2018, the panic sell-off during 3/12 in 2020... Each time, someone was shouting "This time is different," but those who truly made money were never the traders chasing emotions.
His judgment that "the last major negative factor after Japan's rate hike" is something I need to ponder carefully. Looking back at history, the macro interest rate cycle has indeed been a watershed for crypto assets. The wave of 2021-2022, when the Federal Reserve's agg

#AI交易应用 Seeing Tether's move this time reminds me of some past events. I still remember the 2017 bull market, when everyone was debating the future of stablecoins—some said it was a bubble, others said it would change finance. Looking back now, stablecoins have survived and are doing better and better.
The AI wallet announced by Paolo this time may seem like a new concept at first glance, but upon closer inspection, it’s actually a new chapter of an old story. From MtGox’s simple interface, to Coinbase’s improved user experience, and now to AI assistants—the evolution of crypto payments is al

#加密货币监管政策 When I saw this news, the first thought that flashed through my mind was 2013. That year, Bitcoin surged from ¥1000 to ¥8000 and then fell back. Our group argued fiercely on forums, debating whether cryptocurrencies were a scam or not. Over ten years have passed, and platforms like Circle and Ripple, once looked down upon by traditional finance circles, are now entering the US financial system.
This is not just about a license. The significance of the Federal Trust Bank's status is understood by those who experienced the Tongzhou Bay incident in 2014, the ICO boom in 2017, and the T

#比特币价格走势 The $86,000 to $92,000 range looks very familiar. Looking back at historical records, similar oscillations occurred before the 2017 bull market top, during the correction period in 2021, and even in the rebound phase of 2019 — back then we called it "main force accumulating," now analysts call it "profit-taking" and "games before options expiration." The essence hasn't changed, only the participants and leverage scale have.
Wintermute said that year-end portfolio adjustments and tax considerations are driving factors. I heard this ten years ago — back then, it was before there were m

#预测市场 Watching the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year on Polymarket drop from an optimistic expectation to 11% brings a familiar feeling. I have experienced this feeling in 2017 and 2021—whenever the year-end approaches, the market begins to self-reflect, knocking down once confident targets one by one.
I remember at the end of 2021, many were confident that Bitcoin would break $100,000 in November, only to start blaming December, saying "It will definitely work next year." The current 11% actually reflects what the market is saying honestly. The probability of reaching $95,00

#稳定币市场竞争与发展 Seeing CZ's words, I am reminded of the wild growth of stablecoins in 2017. Back then, we all thought USDT was the endgame, but then USDC and BUSD took turns, and now FDUSD and USD1 are here.
This logic is actually very familiar—every new competitor that appears claims to be "more transparent," "safer," and "more profitable." Stablecoins have evolved from version 1.0 to 1.5, but essentially, they are still solving an old problem: how to provide real value feedback to users while ensuring stability. The "lying flat" stablecoins like USDT and USDC are indeed no longer meeting the de

#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing this QCP analysis, my mind flashed back to the ICO frenzy of 2017. Back then, it was the same—capital flooded in like a tide, every project claiming to be the future, with fundraising numbers exaggerated one after another, but very few projects actually turned the raised funds into revenue. The final result, as everyone knows, was a mess.
The current AI infrastructure investment boom reminds me of a similar pattern. Funds keep pouring in, but monetization lags behind—this point hits the core. History has shown us that when investment growth far outpaces revenue growth, a rev