Nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire today, increasing short-term fluctuation risks.

Core Event: Bitcoin options contracts worth nearly 3 billion USD will expire and be delivered at 15:00 Beijing Time on July 4 (08:00 UTC) on the crypto assets options exchange Deribit.

Key Price Level: Maximum Pain Point $106,000

• The current “maximum pain point” price is locked at $106,000.
• This price is a key reference point for the options expiration effect, indicating that expiration near this price level will cause the maximum call and put options to expire worthless (value going to zero), resulting in the greatest profit for the options seller and the greatest loss for the buyer.
• As the expiration approaches, Bitcoin price fluctuations may sometimes converge towards this level, especially within its reach. As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin trading price is $109,044, up 0.2% for the day.

Market momentum weakens, trading volume shrinks

• In the past 24 hours, the Crypto Assets market trading volume has significantly decreased by 21%, dropping to 28.9 billion USD.
• The low trading volume environment before and after the options expiry date will amplify price sensitivity, intensifying short-term price fluctuations, as traders need to adjust positions to cope with contract delivery risks.

Long and Short Game: Bearish/Bullish Ratio Shows Balance

• The Put/Call Ratio for this expiry is 1.05.
• This indicates that the market sentiment is relatively balanced, with bullish bets and bearish bets being of equal strength, showing no significant bias towards one direction.
• Given that the current price of Bitcoin is still above the maximum pain point, this equilibrium and the options contract expiration settlement itself may bring about short-term downside risk, as traders unwind their positions.

Technical Analysis: Upward Trend Remains, but Shows Signs of Fatigue

• Bitcoin price trend is still within the upward trend channel.
• Current price still stands firmly above key moving averages: 20-day moving average and 10-day moving average form short-term dynamic support.
• The price is running near the upper band of Bollinger Bands, which usually indicates buying pressure, but also means that if new funds do not enter, the upward trend may stagnate.
• MACD indicator is in the positive zone, indicating that the market still has support, but the momentum indicator is starting to show signs of weakness.

Key Support and Resistance: Pay Attention to $107,500 and $110,000

• Downside Risk: If Bitcoin loses the support level of $107,500, it may test the $106,000 area. This position is not only the maximum pain target price, but also coincides with the recent technical low support, forming a key support level.
• Upward Potential: If the price can stably stand above $108,000 and break through the $110,000 resistance with increased volume support, it indicates that bullish momentum is restarting, and it is expected to challenge the historical high (ATH) above $111,000 again.