Bitcoin Price Prediction: Mt. Gox Sell-off Countdown of 34,689 BTC, Could Trigger a Market Crash?

The Mt. Gox trustee must complete the basic repayments, early one-time repayments, and mid-term repayments to Bitcoin creditors by the deadline of October 31, with approximately 34,689 BTC still held in Mt. Gox-related Wallets. Bitcoin price forecasts face a critical test: can the exchange absorb the supply wave at the end of the month? Or will creditors transfer through custodial and OTC Trading channels?

Three Repayment Paths by the Deadline of October 31

The repayment deadline of Mt. Gox has raised questions: will the exchange absorb the supply wave at the end of the month, or will creditors transfer currency through custody and OTC Trading channels? October 31 marks the completion date, rather than a single payment event, and the trustee reports that for creditors who have submitted all necessary information, these phases are “basically completed.”

The first path is staggered distribution. Creditors will receive a batch of Bitcoin throughout October, but they can choose to hold or transfer the coins for custody, thereby minimizing immediate selling pressure. The processing windows for the exchange are up to 90 days and 60 days respectively, meaning that even within the same repayment phase, individual credit lines will be paid on different dates, spreading potential sales over several weeks rather than concentrating payments.

The Bitcoin price prediction is relatively optimistic in this scenario. If 34,689 BTC are distributed throughout October and even extend into early November, with a daily selling pressure of about 1,000 to 2,000 BTC, and Bitcoin's daily trading volume typically reaching 20 billion to 30 billion USD (approximately 180,000 to 270,000 BTC), the market is fully capable of absorbing this increase in supply without causing severe volatility.

The second scenario is that creditors transfer currency to the OTC Trading platform, thereby consuming the liquidity of institutional buyers without affecting the public order book. OTC Trading completely bypasses the exchange infrastructure, and the spot trading volume and underlying transactions remain unaffected, while still completing the distribution before October 31. This pathway is the most favorable for Bitcoin price predictions, as institutional buyers are usually willing to purchase large amounts in the OTC market at prices slightly below market value, providing creditors with a quick monetization channel while avoiding price impacts on the public market.

The third scenario is that unexpected exchange inflows occur as a batch of cleared custodial checks is added to the exchange's order book. The concentrated inflow will be reflected in the spot trading volume, and as market makers rebalance hedges, it may compress the basis and affect ETF arbitrage flows. This scenario poses the greatest risk to Bitcoin price predictions, as concentrated sell-offs may trigger panic and technical breakdowns.

The exchange delivery of entrusted custody or OTC Trading paths has higher visibility, so sudden wallet changes are a key signal for traders to monitor Mt. Gox addresses before the end-of-month deadline.

Historical data shows strong market absorption capability

(Source: CryptoSlate)

The pool originally had 142,000 BTC, of which about 107,000 BTC have been transferred to the final recipients. Glassnode reported that as of July 29, 2024, 59,000 BTC have entered the exchange, while BitGo held approximately 33,023 BTC in its tracked wallets as of mid-August. More batches of funds are in place by late summer, but the current ratio between the exchange and custody fund flows has not yet been disclosed.

Out of the 92,023 BTC tracked, approximately 64.1% were sent to exchanges. If the remaining 34,689 BTC are applied with this ratio, the worst-case scenario would be 22,253 Bitcoins entering exchanges at the same time. As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin trading price is $106,795, which means a potential sell-off pressure of $2.4 billion.

However, historical data provides reassuring evidence. On July 30, 2024, the price of Bitcoin remained stable, with 47,229 BTC transferred to three Wallets at that time. The amount was equivalent to 3.1 billion USD, far exceeding the current remaining 2.4 billion USD. The market did not collapse in the face of such a scale of supply, showing that the liquidity depth of Bitcoin is sufficient to absorb the Mt. Gox repayments.

The timeline of fund outflows from Mt. Gox also supports this optimistic judgment. The total amount of funds outflowing in July 2024 was approximately 47,000 BTC, in August 2024 it was 13,000 BTC, and in April 2025 another 10,000 BTC flowed out of wallets. Among these three large-scale transfers, only the transfer in August coincided with the price drop, but the real culprit at that time was the closing of arbitrage trades involving the Japanese yen, rather than the Mt. Gox repayments themselves.

On August 4, 2024, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates, triggering massive unwinding of yen arbitrage trades, causing BTC to drop from $58,315 to $49,351, a decline of 15%. This crash coincided with the repayment from Mt. Gox, but analysis shows that there is no causal relationship between the two. Yen arbitrage trading involves hundreds of billions of dollars, and its unwinding has a far greater impact on the global financial markets than the 13,000 BTC from Mt. Gox.

Therefore, even in the worst case, with 2.4 billion dollars flowing into the exchange, Bitcoin price forecasts indicate that it may only experience slight fluctuations. The current daily trading volume of Bitcoin is approximately 20 to 30 billion dollars, and 2.4 billion dollars accounts for only 8-12%, making it completely feasible to absorb the amount over several days.

Bitcoin Price Prediction and Monitoring Strategies

The actual impact of the Mt. Gox repayments on Bitcoin price predictions depends on the behavior patterns of the creditors. Historical experience shows that many Mt. Gox creditors are early Bitcoin believers who suffered heavy losses when the exchange collapsed in 2014, and they have been waiting for repayments for over 11 years. These individuals may have an extremely strong belief in Bitcoin, and after receiving repayments, they may not necessarily sell immediately; instead, they might hold long-term or only partially liquidate.

Traders should monitor key signals from the Mt. Gox address before the end of the month deadline. Sudden wallet movements, especially large transfers to known exchange hot wallet addresses, may signal an impending concentrated sell-off. Conversely, if funds are transferred to custody services like BitGo or unknown addresses, it may indicate that creditors are choosing to hold long-term.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently has strong support around 107,000 USD, which is a key level that has been tested multiple times without breaking. Even if the Mt. Gox repayments trigger short-term selling pressure, as long as the 107,000 USD level holds, the Bitcoin price forecast remains in an upward oscillation pattern. If it breaks below, it may test deeper support levels of 93,000 to 95,000 USD.