$16 billion Bitcoin Ethereum Options expire today, with the maximum pain points at $114,000 and $4,100.

More than $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options will expire on October 31, 2025, at Deribit, marking one of the largest monthly encryption derivation events of the year, expected to significantly amplify market fluctuation. The maximum pain price for Bitcoin options is $114,000, while for Ethereum it is $4,100. Although the Put-to-Call ratio shows a mild bullish tendency, analysts warn that the market structure is “fragile and lacking buying pressure,” and traders need to closely follow whether prices will trend towards the maximum pain area.

Massive Options Expiry: A Key Moment for Market Fluctuation Surge

The October 31st options expiration is massive, not only exceeding last week's $6 billion expiration amount, but also due to the concentrated settlement of monthly contracts, its potential impact on spot prices cannot be ignored.

• Expiration Size: Bitcoin will have 124,171 contracts expiring, with a nominal value of $13.59 billion; Ethereum will have 646,902 contracts expiring, valued at $2.49 billion, totaling over $16 billion.
• Maximum Pain Theory: Historical experience shows that as the expiration date approaches, Bitcoin prices tend to converge towards the maximum pain price, which is the result of market makers maximizing their profits through hedging positions.
• Put/Call Ratio: The Put-to-Call ratio for Bitcoin and Ethereum is 0.70, indicating a moderate bullish bias in traders' positions ahead of expiration.

Bitcoin Options Layout: Resistance and Support in a Fragile Market Structure

Currently, the Bitcoin trading price is approximately $109,287, and the options data reveals the vulnerability of its market structure and key price levels.

(Upcoming Bitcoin Options | Source: Deribit)

• Max Pain and Long/Short Comparison: The Bitcoin max pain price is $114,000. Among the total open contracts, bullish Options (Call) have 73,001 contracts, exceeding 51,171 contracts of bearish Options (Put).
• Market Structure Warning: Analysts from Greeks.live pointed out that after recent liquidations, the market structure is “fragile and lacks buying interest”. The key price levels they emphasized include $112,000 and the CME gap between $110,000 and $111,000.
• Resistance and Support: The upper resistance level is in the range of 116,000 USD to 118,000 USD. If the current support level is broken, traders need to follow 106,000 USD, which indicates a possible 3% pullback.
• Declining Participation: It is worth noting that the open contracts of Bitcoin options have decreased from over 100,000 to about 70,000 in the past month, indicating a reduction in participation by traders or a lack of confidence under the current price.

Ethereum Options: Cautious Optimism in Defensive Positions

Ethereum is currently trading at approximately $3,854, and its options positions show a more cautious tone, despite the improvement in macro sentiment.

• Maximum Pain Point Slightly Above Current Price: Ethereum's maximum pain price is set at $4,100, slightly above its current price.
• Defensive Position: Bullish Options amount to 381,462, exceeding 265,440 of Bearish Options. Deribit analysts point out that Ethereum positions are leaning towards caution, with more Bearish Options than Bullish Options, indicating that traders are hedging against downside risk.
• Cautiously optimistic: Analysts believe that with the noticeable easing of the China-US trade tensions, the upward risks are increasing, and traders' hedging levels are decreasing. However, Greeks.live also warns that downward risks are still persistent, and buying power is exhausted.

Conclusion

Today, over 16 billion dollars of Bitcoin and Ethereum Options are expiring, which is the main driving force behind short-term volatility in the encryption market. Traders should focus on the maximum pain points of $114,000 (for Bitcoin) and $4,100 (for Ethereum), watching whether the price is attracted to these areas. Between the cautious optimism brought by macro improvement and warnings of a fragile market structure, short-term traders must be prepared to handle rapid price fluctuations.