Ethereum Price Prediction: Institutional Holdings Surpass Bitcoin for the First Time, Network Activity Hits New Highs, ETH Aiming for $8500

Ethereum price fell below 4,000 USD, trading around 3,900 USD, with a daily decline of 2.2%, mainly influenced by Fed Chairman Powell's comments that there may not be another rate cut this year. However, Ethereum's fundamentals are exceptionally strong: institutional holdings have surpassed Bitcoin for the first time, reaching 4.1% of total supply; daily volume and active addresses, among other on-chain activities, have all hit record highs. Despite short-term ETF recording a net outflow of 81.44 million USD, analysts predict that Ethereum is expected to reach 4,272 USD before November 30, and may ultimately surge towards 8,500 USD.

Macroeconomic Shocks and ETF Capital Outflows: Short-term Price Pressure

Under the Fed's hawkish remarks, Ethereum and the entire cryptocurrency market have experienced profit-taking and risk aversion.

• Fed comments trigger a fall: The Ethereum price fell to around $3,900 after Fed Chairman Powell hinted that recent interest rate cuts could be the last in 2025, sparking cautious sentiment in the market.
• ETF Net Outflow: After experiencing two consecutive days of net inflow, the Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of $81.44 million on the latest trading day. Among them, Fidelity's FETH fund saw an outflow of $69.49 million, leading the decline, while only BlackRock's ETHA fund managed to record a net inflow of $21.36 million against the trend.
• Technical indicators weaken: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicators both indicate that bullish momentum is weakening. Analysts warn that if $4,000 is not reclaimed, the price may further test the support zone of $3,850 to $3,750.

Institutional Interest Breakthrough: Ethereum Holdings Ratio Surpasses Bitcoin for the First Time

Despite short-term price fluctuations, Ethereum's position as an institutional allocation target is rapidly rising, with its institutional holdings ratio surpassing that of Bitcoin for the first time.

• Holdings Ratio Hits New High: Institutional investors currently hold 4.1% of the total supply of Ethereum, marking the first time their holdings ratio has surpassed Bitcoin's 3.6%.
• Policy clarity is the driving force: Analysts attribute this shift to legislation such as the GENIUS Act, which provides a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins and on-chain finance, significantly enhancing institutional trust in Ethereum.
• DeFi Backbone Position: Many funds view Ethereum as the core backbone of DeFi and tokenized real-world assets (RWA). Santiment data shows that despite the weak prices, institutions are still increasing their exposure, and the emergence of large short positions suggests that the possibility of a price rebound is greater.

Record On-Chain Activity: Strong Fundamentals Support Long-Term Growth

In stark contrast to the short-term price weakness, the fundamentals of the Ethereum network and on-chain activity are unprecedentedly strong.

• Network activity breaks records: Daily volume and unique active addresses both reached all-time highs, demonstrating the thriving growth of the ecosystem.
• Efficiency Improvement and Low Gas Fees: Despite the surge in volume, Gas Fees remain at near historical lows, thanks to the scalability improvements brought by Layer-2 networks (such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base).
• Future Upgrades: The transition of Ethereum to Proof-of-Stake and the upcoming EIP-4844 upgrade will further enhance its performance.
• Long-term bullish forecast: Analyst Javon Marks believes that after Ethereum breaks through 4,811.71 USD, it is expected to explore new highs of 8,500 USD. CoinCodex predicts that Ethereum will reach 4,272 USD by November 30.

Conclusion

Ethereum's recent price pullback is more a result of macro sentiment and short-term profit-taking, forming a stark contrast to its historically strong fundamentals. The institutional holdings ratio surpassing that of Bitcoin and record highs in on-chain activity have laid a solid long-term value foundation for Ethereum. Investors should focus on these structural positives and view the short-term pullback as a technical correction; a decisive closing price breakthrough of $4,100 will be a key signal to reignite Ethereum's push towards higher targets.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.