Gate latest Crypto Assets market analysis (November 4): Bitcoin 107,000 fluctuates, "extreme fear" buy the dip signal flashes.

On November 4th, the analysis of the Crypto Assets market shows that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating at 107,012.59 USD. The Crypto Assets Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 21 points, indicating an “extreme fear” stage, with low investor confidence but potential Rebound opportunities. In terms of alts, PCNT has seen a 24-hour pump of 1190.93%. Institutional investment continues, with the amount of coins held by listed companies exceeding 1 million.

Mainstream Coin Core Performance Analysis

(Source: CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin is currently priced at 107,012.59 USD, with a price range of 105,312-109,890 USD. In terms of market narrative, institutional investment continues, with publicly listed companies holding over 1 million coins, marking an important milestone. Although the corporate Bitcoin reserve strategy led by MicroStrategy has slowed down, the total amount is still on the rise. Technically, the price is oscillating around 110,000 USD, with intensified bulls and bears contesting. This price range is a key psychological barrier; a breakout would open up upward space towards 120,000 USD, while a drop below could test the 105,000 USD support.

Ethereum is currently priced at 3,638.82 USD, with a 24-hour fluctuation of -0.96% and a 24-hour trading volume of 256,755 coins, within a price range of 3,558-3,845 USD. In terms of market narrative, the spot trading volume has surpassed BTC for the first time, which is an extremely rare phenomenon, reflecting the ongoing development and increased activity within the Ethereum ecosystem. The technical aspect shows a fluctuation around 4,300 USD (this may be a data error, as the current price is 3,638 USD), with strong liquidity from institutional funds. Ethereum's relative strength may stem from its core position in the DeFi, NFT, and Layer-2 ecosystems.

Key Data Comparison of Mainstream Coins

BTC: 107,050.5 USD (+0.44%), trading volume 15,026 coins

ETH: 3,638.82 USD (-0.96%), trading volume 256,755 coins

Liquidity Comparison: ETH trading volume significantly surpasses BTC, indicating a superiority in activity.

Institutional Holdings: The listed company BTC holdings exceed 1 million coins, setting a new historical high.

Technical Form: BTC oscillates around the $110,000 mark, ETH consolidates in the $3,600-$3,800 range.

The stable pricing of Bitcoin and the small bid-ask spread indicate a healthy liquidity condition. Ethereum's trading depth also performs excellently, providing ample arbitrage opportunities. This healthy liquidity environment offers investors relatively safe trading conditions with lower slippage risk.

Altcoin Extreme Volatility Warning

The BDXN quote is $0.0543, with a 24-hour pump of 38.83%. The key feature is its launch on multiple exchanges, enhancing liquidity. The market highlight is the token unlocking event on September 3, which is worth paying attention to. This rebound after the unlocking may be due to the release of selling pressure, but investors need to be wary of new selling pressure from subsequent unlocks.

PCNT price 0.0054 USD, 24-hour increase of 1190.93%, this extreme volatility is highly speculative and carries high risk. A single-day increase of over 1000% usually stems from an extremely low base, very small market capitalization, and extreme market manipulation. This type of coin is suitable for experienced short-term speculators, and ordinary investors should stay away. Chasing after such extreme increases in coins often leads to similarly extreme pullbacks in a short period.

MUSIC is quoted at 0.005949 USD, with a 24-hour pump of 38.02%. The trading feature is relatively low volume. This significant rise in low volume may be the result of market manipulation, and investors may face huge slippage and liquidity risks when entering the market. The characteristics of small-cap coins are that they are easily manipulated; prices can be dramatically pushed by a small amount of capital, but they can also easily crash.

The common characteristics of these three alts are extreme volatility and high risk. In crypto assets market analysis, such coins are usually regarded as speculative tools rather than investment targets. They are suitable for small positions to test the waters, with strict stop-loss settings, and one must be mentally prepared for a total loss.

Fear and Greed Index investment opportunity at 21 points

(Source: Gate)

One of the core indicators for analyzing Crypto Assets market trends is the Fear and Greed Index, with the current reading at 21 points, indicating a state of “Extreme Fear.” This index ranges from 0 to 100, with 0 representing extreme fear and 100 representing extreme greed. The reading of 21 points shows that market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, and investor confidence is low. However, from a contrarian investment perspective, this precisely nurtures potential Rebound opportunities.

Historical data shows that when the Fear and Greed Index enters the “Extreme Fear” zone (usually below 25), it often represents a medium to long-term buying opportunity. When the market is in a state of excessive fear, potential sellers have completed their sell-offs, and what remains in the market is primarily steadfast long-term holders. At this time, any positive news or technical breakthroughs can trigger a dual push from short covering and new buying. Instances in 2024 have shown that within 30 days after the Fear and Greed Index hits the bottom, Bitcoin's average price increase reaches 15-25%.

However, extreme panic may also last for a longer time, and it does not always rebound immediately. During the bear market of 2022, the Fear and Greed Index lingered below 20 for several months. Therefore, although the current reading of 21 provides potential opportunities, investors still need to wait for confirmation signals of improved market sentiment, such as increased trading volume, strengthening technical indicators, or the release of significant positive news.

Investment Strategies and Risk Management Recommendations

In terms of short-term trading strategies, the analysis of the crypto assets market suggests an entry price for Bitcoin (BTC) of $107,000-$108,000, which is close to the current price and suitable for gradually building positions on dips. The entry price for Ethereum (ETH) is $3,600-$3,700, which is also a support area near the current price. The stop-loss levels are set at $105,000 for BTC and $3,550 for ETH, these stop-loss levels are approximately 2-3% below the entry price, providing reasonable room for error.

Position management suggests allocating 10%-15% of total capital, which is a relatively conservative configuration suitable for a medium to high-risk market environment. In an extremely fearful market sentiment, holding a large amount of cash is a wise choice, allowing for increased positions if prices further decline, and also avoiding significant losses in case of misjudging the situation. The risk level assessment is medium to high, reflecting the current market's uncertainty.

In terms of mid-term investment layout, the trend judgment is mainly a volatile upward movement. This means that the market is expected to consolidate within the current range, but the overall trend is leaning towards an increase. The suggested allocation is 60% BTC and 40% ETH, which reflects Bitcoin's priority status as a mainstream safe-haven asset while also considering Ethereum's growth potential. Key points to watch are the progress of SEC regulation, especially the approval status of the spot ETF and the legislative progress of crypto-friendly bills.

Complete Investment Strategy Framework

Short-term entry: BTC 107,000-108,000 USD, ETH 3,600-3,700 USD

Stop Loss Setting: BTC 105,000 USD (-2%), ETH 3,550 USD (-2.3%)

Position Ratio: Total capital 10%-15%, with BTC 60% and ETH 40%

Holding Period: Short-term 1-2 weeks, Medium-term 1-3 months

Risk Level: Medium to High Risk, strict stop-loss discipline required.

This strategy design balances aggression and conservatism. Attempting to build positions in a market environment of extreme panic aligns with contrarian investment logic. However, it also sets strict stop losses and lower positions to ensure that even if the judgment is wrong, significant losses will not occur.

Risk Factors and Market Outlook

Core risks include systemic risks, primarily due to regulatory policy uncertainty. The attitude of the US SEC towards Crypto Assets, changes in regulatory frameworks across countries, and tightening of anti-money laundering and tax policies could all cause systemic shocks to the market. In terms of individual coin risks, BTC faces risks from fluctuations in institutional funds, as previously mentioned, major buyers like Strategy have already slowed down purchases. ETH faces the risk of ecological development falling short of expectations, with competition from Layer-2 and the technological upgrade progress of Ethereum itself affecting its long-term value.

Liquidity risk is particularly pronounced when market sentiment is low. When panic prevails, buying demand may quickly vanish, leading to a backlog of sell orders and a price plunge. The deleveraging event on October 10 demonstrated that liquidity can evaporate within minutes under extreme market conditions, reminding investors that they must always be prepared to face sudden liquidity crises.

In terms of market outlook, the analysis of cryptocurrency trends presents three scenario probabilities: bull market probability 30%, consolidation probability 50%, and bear market probability 20%. This distribution indicates that the most likely scenario is continued consolidation, with the market fluctuating repeatedly within the current range until a clear directional catalyst emerges. Although the probability of a bull market is relatively low, it is not impossible, requiring the support of clear regulations and institutional capital inflows as catalysts. The bear market has the lowest probability, indicating that analysts believe the possibility of a further significant decline is relatively limited.

The catalysts include clear regulations and institutional capital inflows. If the SEC approves more spot ETFs, particularly XRP and Solana ETFs, it could trigger a new wave of institutional allocations. If crypto-friendly legislation like the Market Structure Act passes in Congress, it will eliminate long-standing regulatory uncertainties. If the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates in December, it will improve the overall environment for risk assets, benefiting crypto assets. The realization of any of these catalysts could push the volatile landscape towards a bull market.