CICC: Lowering the target price of HKEx to HK$440, expecting a 7% year-on-year increase in third-quarter profit

Jinshi data news on October 15th, the China Gold published a research report, it is expected that the Hong Kong Exchange’s third-quarter revenue this year will increase by 6% year-on-year, remaining flat at 5.41 billion Hong Kong dollars for the quarter; Overseas Liquidity marginally loosening and potential economic policy continues to be introduced, which may further catalyze the trading sentiment of Hong Kong stocks, provide downside protection for the profitability and valuation of the Hong Kong Exchange. In addition, under the assumption of the 2025 center, if the average daily trading volume (ADT) increases by 10% each, the bank’s calculation will drive the net profit of the Hong Kong Exchange by 8.6%. If the expected ADT continues to increase, it will further open up the valuation space of the Hong Kong Exchange. Based on the adjustment of transaction assumptions and changes in tax policies in 2025, China Gold will respectively reduce the profit forecast for the fiscal year 2024 and 2025 of the Hong Kong Exchange by 2% and 6%, and correspondingly reduce its target price by 8% to 440 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining the “outperforming the industry” rating.