The Fed model predicts a 2.8% negative growth in the US economy in Q1.

On March 4th, the Golden Ten Data reported that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has seen a dramatic decline in its recent forecast for the US economy. Its estimate for the actual GDP rise (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8%, lower than the -1.5% on February 28th. The forecast values for the actual personal consumption rise and the actual private fixed investment rise for the first quarter of the United States have respectively dropped from 1.3% and 3.5% to 0.0% and 0.1%. The GDPNow model is updated every few days, depending on the frequency of high-frequency data updates. Generally, the closer it gets to the actual data release date, the more comprehensive the information and the smaller the forecast error. GDPNow does not have subjective adjustments, and the assessment is entirely based on the mathematical results of the model. However, this model, which is based on the continuous estimate of the actual GDP from real-time data, is still widely recognized by researchers.