Fed's Most Unpredictable Policy Meeting in Years Looms as Tariff Risks and Hawkish Tilt Challenge Rate-Hold Consensus

According to Odaily, Nick Timiraos (the Wall Street Journal's Federal Reserve reporter) wrote on July 23 that the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting will be the most difficult to predict in recent years. Rising oil prices, escalating U.S. tariff policy risks, and some officials' shift toward supporting rate hikes are challenging the consensus to hold policy rates steady.

The market widely expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% during its July 28–29 meeting. However, the results mask internal disagreement; some officials have begun laying groundwork for further rate increases this year. At a previous meeting, the Fed's 18 officials showed sharp division on whether additional hikes are needed, with half expecting increases and half opposing further adjustments.