Аналітик Xangle: уповільнення зайнятості та стабільність нафти підтримують криптовалюти

Xangle researcher Kim Jun-seong issued a research report stating that employment slowdown and oil price stability support cryptocurrency risk appetite. The report, released the day before the 5th, identified the core variables in the recent cryptocurrency market as the reassessment of the Federal Reserve's rate path following US June employment slowdown and inflation burden relief due to oil price stabilization. June non-farm employment increased by only 57,000, about half the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% partly reflecting a decline in labor force participation rate. Average hourly wage growth of 0.3% month-over-month met expectations, providing limited signals of additional wage-driven inflation pressure, according to Kim's analysis.

June Employment Data Shows Significant Slowdown

Kim identified this week's core market variable as the reassessment of the Fed's rate path following US June employment slowdown. June non-farm employment increased by only 57,000, approximately half the expected level of 110,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, though this decline also reflected the impact of a lower labor force participation rate. Kim stated that average hourly wage growth of 0.3% month-over-month aligned with expectations, providing limited signals that wage-driven inflation pressure expanded further. The market interpreted this data as cooling labor market overheating rather than a sharp economic downturn, Kim explained. Expectations for additional Fed rate increases retreated, easing dollar and interest rate burdens. In the cryptocurrency market, the reduced discount rate burden supported Bitcoin's rebound and provided a catalyst for short-term risk asset appetite recovery, according to the researcher.

Oil Prices Stabilize Below Key Threshold

Kim identified the second key variable this week as inflation burden relief following oil price stabilization. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $68.69 per barrel on the 2nd, while Brent crude closed at $71.80. Energy prices moved away from levels that would reignite inflation concerns. Kim stated that expectations for progress in US-Iran negotiations and recovery of cargo volume through the Hormuz Strait limited the upside for oil prices, though disagreements remain regarding transit fees and nuclear agreements, making it difficult to view geopolitical premiums as completely resolved. The researcher emphasized that oil prices stabilizing around $70 per barrel partially lowered vigilance toward the June Consumer Price Index scheduled for release in mid-July. This created a favorable macro environment for interest rate-sensitive cryptocurrencies and provided the backdrop for Bitcoin-centered buying momentum to spread to Ethereum and some altcoins, Kim explained.

Analyst Identifies Key Monitoring Points Through Mid-July

Kim characterized this rebound as strongly driven by the simultaneous occurrence of employment slowdown and oil price stability, which eased tightening burdens. The researcher stated that considering the low unemployment rate and remaining geopolitical risks, monitoring is needed to determine whether Bitcoin's rebound leads to trend-based rotational buying across altcoins in general before confirmation of the June FOMC minutes and mid-July CPI data.

FAQ

What employment data did Kim Jun-seong highlight in the Xangle report?

Kim's report highlighted that US June non-farm employment increased by only 57,000, approximately half the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, though this reflected a decline in labor force participation rate. Average hourly wage growth was 0.3% month-over-month, meeting expectations with limited signals of additional wage-driven inflation pressure.

How did oil prices stabilize according to the Xangle analysis?

According to Kim's analysis, WTI crude closed at $68.69 per barrel on the 2nd, while Brent crude closed at $71.80. Oil prices stabilized around $70 per barrel, moving away from levels that would reignite inflation concerns. Kim stated this stabilization partially lowered vigilance toward the June CPI release scheduled for mid-July.