Craig Hemke at Sprott Money stated that gold and silver price lows for 2026 are likely already established following a four-month period of weakness. The precious metals experienced pressure after the Iran War caused inflation expectations and rate hike projections to rise, with crude oil surging from $65 to $110. Hemke's analysis indicates the market hit 'Peak Hawkishness' in the days immediately following the June FOMC meeting. With hostilities largely ceasing last month and crude oil prices returning to $68, Hemke believes the fundamental drivers of the long-term rally will resume supporting precious metals prices.
Sprott Money 的 Craig Hemke 表示，在经历了四个月的疲软之后，黄金和白银的 2026 年价格低点很可能已经确立。贵金属在伊朗战争导致通胀预期和加息预期上升后承压，原油价格从 65 美元飙升至 110 美元。Hemke 的分析显示，市场在 6 月 FOMC 会议后的几天内触及了“鹰派顶峰”。随着上个月敌对行动基本停止，原油价格回落至 68 美元，Hemke 认为长期上涨的基本面驱动因素将重新支撑贵金属价格。
Iran War Drove Crude Oil from $65 to $110 Before Retreat to $68
伊朗战争推动原油从 65 美元涨至 110 美元后回落至 68 美元
Hemke noted that 2026 began with expectations of additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. "Price inflation was continuing to slow from the highs of 2022, and it was expected that the Fed and whoever was chosen to replace Jerome Powell would begin to cut rates by mid-year, with perhaps as many as two fed funds rate cuts by year end," he wrote. "That all changed with the onset of the Iran War and the sharply higher energy prices that came with it."
Hemke 指出，2026 年初市场预期美联储将进一步降息。“价格通胀持续从 2022 年的高点放缓，人们预计美联储以及接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔的人选将在年中开始降息，到年底可能最多降息两次，”他写道。“这一切随着伊朗战争的爆发以及随之而来的能源价格大幅上涨而改变。”
After the Iran War began, crude oil prices surged from $65 to $110, dragging inflation expectations higher. With the cessation of most hostilities last month, crude oil prices returned to $68, near pre-war levels.
伊朗战争开始后，原油价格从 65 美元飙升至 110 美元，推高了通胀预期。随着上个月大部分敌对行动停止，原油价格回落至 68 美元，接近战前水平。
Energy Component of CPE Spiked 21% from March to May
CPE 能源成分从 3 月到 5 月飙升 21%
"Accordingly, the energy component of the CPE (the Fed's favorite inflation measure) spiked 21% from March to May," Hemke pointed out. "But now that the crude oil price is back to pre-war levels, why shouldn't we expect a sharp drop in the months ahead?"
“相应地，CPE（美联储最青睐的通胀指标）的能源成分从 3 月到 5 月飙升了 21%，”Hemke 指出。“但现在原油价格已回到战前水平，为什么我们不应该预期未来几个月出现大幅下降呢？”
Hemke stated that as inflation concerns ease, the risk of Fed rate hikes will continue easing as well. "Though a symbolic hike is still possible in the months ahead, it's quite likely that Fed policy will soon shift back to what Warsh was originally selected to produce, namely rate cuts that allow for lower net interest costs and negative real interest rates," he said. "If I'm correct about this, the gold and silver price lows of late June are very likely to be the price lows of 2026."
Hemke 表示，随着通胀担忧缓解，美联储加息的风险也将继续缓解。“尽管未来几个月仍有可能象征性加息，但美联储政策很可能会很快转向沃尔什最初被选中来实现的目标，即允许降低净利息成本和负实际利率的降息，”他说。“如果我对此判断正确，那么 6 月底的黄金和白银价格低点很可能是 2026 年的价格低点。”
Hemke Identifies 20-Day Moving Average as Key Technical Indicator
Hemke 将 20 日移动均线确定为关键技术指标
Hemke cautioned that he is not expecting a sharp V-shaped recovery in gold and silver prices. "The chart damage has been significant as prices remain in a technically-bearish configuration and below all of the key moving averages," he said. "Simply moving sideways from here can run out the clock of the bearish indicators and begin to shift sentiment, and that's what I'm expecting for a while."
Hemke 警告称，他并不预期黄金和白银价格会出现急剧的 V 型复苏。“图表受损严重，价格仍处于技术性看跌形态，并低于所有关键移动均线，”他说。“仅从当前位置横盘整理就可以耗尽看跌指标的时间并开始转变市场情绪，这正是我预期会持续一段时间的走势。”
Hemke suggested investors watch the 20-day moving average for clues about precious metals' price direction. "If/when gold and silver move back above this initial trend indicator, you can begin to grow in confidence that the lows of the year are behind us."
Hemke 建议投资者关注 20 日移动均线，以寻找贵金属价格方向的线索。“如果/当黄金和白银回升至这一初始趋势指标上方时，你可以开始更加确信今年的低点已经过去。”
"In summary, with the Iran War ending and energy prices falling, the second half of 2026 is likely to see CPI and PCE price inflation that comes in below expectations," Hemke wrote. "This will signal that 'Peak Hawkishness' has come and gone and that gold and silver investors can soon get back to focusing upon the fundamentals that had driven prices higher in 2024 and 2025."
“总之，随着伊朗战争结束和能源价格下跌，2026 年下半年 CPI 和 PCE 价格通胀可能低于预期，”Hemke 写道。“这将表明‘鹰派顶峰’已经过去，黄金和白银投资者很快就能重新关注在 2024 年和 2025 年推动价格上涨的基本面因素。”
FAQ
常见问题解答
What did Craig Hemke say about gold and silver price lows in 2026?
Craig Hemke 对 2026 年黄金和白银价格低点有何看法？
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money stated that the gold and silver price lows of late June are very likely to be the price lows of 2026, following a four-month period of weakness caused by the Iran War and elevated inflation expectations.
Sprott Money 的 Craig Hemke 表示，在伊朗战争和通胀预期上升导致四个月疲软之后，6 月底的黄金和白银价格低点很可能是 2026 年的价格低点。
Why did gold and silver prices experience weakness in recent months?
为什么近几个月黄金和白银价格走弱？
Gold and silver prices experienced weakness after the Iran War caused crude oil to surge from $65 to $110, which drove inflation expectations higher and increased projections for Federal Reserve rate hikes. The energy component of the CPE spiked 21% from March to May during this period.
伊朗战争导致原油从 65 美元飙升至 110 美元，推高了通胀预期并增加了对美联储加息的预期，之后黄金和白银价格走弱。在此期间，CPE 能源成分从 3 月到 5 月飙升了 21%。
What technical indicator does Hemke recommend watching for precious metals recovery?
Hemke 建议关注哪些技术指标来观察贵金属复苏？
Hemke suggested investors watch the 20-day moving average as a key indicator. He stated that if gold and silver move back above this initial trend indicator, investors can begin to grow in confidence that the lows of the year are behind them.
Hemke 建议投资者关注 20 日移动均线作为关键指标。他表示，如果黄金和白银回升至这一初始趋势指标上方，投资者可以开始更加确信年内低点已经过去。
